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Why did Bush push so hard for Ukraine and Georgia?


BUCHAREST, Romania — President Bush's win yesterday on missile defense has softened the blow of the president's rejection the day before regarding invitations for Ukraine and Georgia into NATO's membership process.


And in fact, the two former Soviet blocs have now been promised entry into the membership action plan (MAP), with a promise to revisit the issue in December.


Still, Mr. Bush and his administration pushed very hard this week for Ukraine and Georgia to be invited to MAP here in Bucharest, not later, and could not persuade key European allies Germany and France, who were being leaned on by Russian President Vladimir Putin.


It's an interesting question why the White House made such a public stand this week, with loud calls from Mr. Bush in a speech on the summit's first day, despite clear signs from Berlin and Paris that the Merkel and Sarkozy governments were not ready to drop their objections.


Bush-Merkel-ap.jpg


There are a few possibilities. The White House was all but certain they were going to get a win on missile defense, with NATO backing it and the Czechs agreeing to a deal, so perhaps they figured they could risk losing a little face to the Russians the day before scoring big.


Mr. Bush's Wednesday morning speech could be viewed as a statement of U.S. position that left a tiny bit of wiggle room for allies who wanted to defer their decision on Ukraine and Georgia. Mr. Bush called for the two countries to be admitted to MAP but his language also left room for an outcome similar to what happened yesterday.


"Here in Bucharest, we must make clear that NATO welcomes the aspirations of Georgia and Ukraine for their membership in NATO and offers them a clear path forward to meet that goal. So my country's position is clear: NATO should welcome Georgia and Ukraine into the Membership Action Plan," Mr. Bush said.


And now, having lost a small battle on MAP at Wednesday night's three-hour dinner to open the summit, the White House looks to not only have won a clear victory on missile defense, but also seems to have taken one step backwards and two steps forward on MAP.


But at times it seemed as if the White House really believed they could sway opinion this week and score a dramatic last-minute victory. White House press secretary Dana Perino told reporters on Air Force One, as the president flew to Bucharest Tuesday night, to "wait and see what happens."


"I think the President fully believes that whenever you have a situation where a decision is coming to a head, you have lots of people making themselves known, talking — there's also going to be a lot of talks that go on in private. And so I would caution against anyone thinking that there's a final outcome before we even touch the ground," she said.


After all the smoke cleared yesterday, the White House suggested that Germany, in particular, had been isolated by their objections to inviting Ukraine and Georgia.


National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley told a story during a press briefing with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice about German Chancellor Angela Merkel being besieged by other European leaders.


Mr. Hadley said that while debating the text of the NATO summit declaration, the leaders took a break, and "it was astonishing to see groups of foreign ministers, but also heads of state and government, in clusters debating this text."


"And pretty soon a large crowd developed in the back, and it was a crowd of, if you will, largely men in suits.


"And I went back, and seated in the middle of that group was the German Chancellor, talking about this text, explaining her views, and hearing from 10, 15 other countries, many of whom had been through this MAP process and were new members of NATO. And a very vigorous discussion. It went on for some time. The Secretary of State joined. I went back later, and there was the Chancellor, still at her seat, the Secretary of State over her shoulder, and drafting in a group of about 25 people."


I'll see if I can get a response on this from the Germans.


We're also waiting to see if Mr. Putin makes a public statement this morning or afternoon, and what he has to say on missile defense and on NATO's promises to Ukraine and Georgia.


Jon Ward, White House correspondent, The Washington Times

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