Could McCain's nomination mean an immigration deal this year?

Greg Siskind has come up with a scenario that argues Democrats should be tempted, now that John McCain is the likely Republican nominee, is to rush an immigration bill through this year.

"Do you think the GOP is going to allow their rank-and-file members to attack their nominee day in day out over the immigration issue? If they do, the results could be disastrous as McCain will be going around the country trying to unite a very fractured party that is already pretty suspicious of his conservative bona fides. Can you imagine one Republican after another having to come to the microphone to denounce the McCain-Kennedy bill (and that's what Reid and Pelosi need to call it every chance they get)? And then McCain being dogged by reporters asking about it multiple times each day?"

In his scenario, immigration could also be the tail that wags the dog — a way for Democrats to distract from their own intraparty presidential battle, particularly if the Clinton-Obama race goes all the way to a convention.

"[T]hrowing the immigration 'grenade' and stirring up the immigration storm in the GOP may make the Democrats bickering look pretty tame," he writes, adding that that would put pressure on Republican leaders to cut a deal on Democrats' terms to keep their own fight under wraps. Siskind says bringing back the bill this year "would have virtually no drawbacks" for Democrats.

It's an intriguing scenario, though it doesn't strike me as working out as easily as he puts it. In the first place, McCain has had to shift somewhat, embracing both an enforcement-first position that his own campaign manager says is now the consensus of the party. It would be impossible for McCain to back away from that now.

Second, it wasn't just Republicans that killed the bill. More than a dozen Democratic senators were happy to have a chance to vote against it, and on the House side, plenty of conservative-leaning Democrats will be begging their leaders not to go Siskind's recommended route.

Still, given that McCain has said he still supports the bill he wrote with Sen. Ted Kennedy — yet also says that bill is dead — Democrats must be at least a little tempted to prove him wrong and bring it back, just to see what he does.

— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

Audio: Listen to the interview

Is immigration a dead issue now in politics? After Sen. John McCain acknowledged his stance on the issue nearly killed his campaign last summer, his campaign manager now says they've reached "convergence," where the Republican Party shares the same view. That, said Rick Davis, the campaign manager, has helped immigration "mature" into a non-issue:

"I do believe that the convergence of our party on sort of a single approach to immigration is part of what has done that. In other words, today, there's a different debate going on than there was a year ago. And I think that part of that is because Senator McCain went out and exercised a position on this issue, vigorously, that didn't work. And he was not able to pass a piece of legislation that addressed the issue in away that he thought would benefit the country the most. Part of the message he got was how little confidence the American people have in the institution of Congress and the administration to implement that law. I don't think there's much other reason — you can debate the merits of it from a public policy point of view, but clearly the American public opposed it because I don't think they thought anything was going to get done. Now the issue is, we need to exert every resource we can as a government, whether Congress or the administration, to get control of our border before we can effectuate a real change in our immigration plans."

"It doesn't even come up in conversations. You hear a lot of things, immigration's not one of the hot topics anymore. So wihtin our own party I think that issue has matured into something that's less divisive."

— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

The Coronado National Forest in southern Arizona features beautiful views, open spaces, well-maintained roadways, sprawling oak trees, a pleasant climate, lots of wildlife, and drug and alien smugglers. In fact, visitors to the tax-supported national forest are greeted with an entrance sign that says, "Travel Caution: Smuggling and illegal immigration may be encountered in this area."

And the National Border Patrol Council, which represents all 12,000 of the agency's non-supervisory agents, is not happy about it.

"There's tons of trash, shootings, stolen cars, shooting and a pit in your stomach if you dare take your family there for a 'relaxing' day, weekend, or vacation," the council's Local 2544 in Tucson posted on its Web page. "Needless to say, it's almost always bereft of the good, solid, taxpaying American citizens who should be enjoying it."

If Sen. John McCain, the Republican whose home state is Arizona, should become president, Local 2544 believes there will be another huge amnesty program and "the rest of America can start looking forward to these types of 'recreational' areas as well." Local 2544, which has bitterly opposed the McCain candidacy, also noted that "a Border Patrol agent and a fine family man" was killed in broad daylight by a drug smuggler in another recreation area last month, the Imperial Sand Dunes about eight miles west of the Arizona-California border.

"Thanks for your support Sen. McCain. Please keep selling us out so we can look forward to more deaths, more rockings, more shootings, more assaults and more mayhem. If McCain can contribute to this much mayhem in his 'home' state by encouraging millions more illegal aliens to come here with incessant pandering and promises of future massive amnesty programs, just think of the damage he can do as your president," the local said.

— Jerry Seper, national political reporter, The Washington Times