UPDATE 2:15 a.m.:

If this doesn't make you mad, it should:

Watching Chris Matthews, I just saw that Tim Russert has already booked John McCain as his featured interviewee for this Sunday. Republican presidential candidate who won the Iowa Caucuses? Well, sorry, you're out of luck. It's already been decided that the "real" story out of Iowa is McCain....

-- RSM

UPDATE 12:55 a.m.:

And the spin begins: The Wall Street Journal calls Iowa the "beginning of the end for Romney."

Eh? Rudy Giuliani finishes sixth -- behind Ron Paul -- with only 3% of the vote, Fred Thompson and John McCain tie for a distant third, and of all the political obituaries that might be written, the WSJ writes off the second-place finisher, Romney?

Right. The multimillionaire who looks like a movie star -- no hope of a comeback for a guy like that. But things are looking up for the bald septuagenarian:

In five days, Romney will have to fend off Sen. John McCain -- and perhaps Huckabee -- in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary. A victory in New Hampshire is now even more critical to Romney's bid, and if his loss here tonight is indicative of anything, it's that message beat money. That news should be encouraging for McCain, who like Huckabee, is still struggling to keep his campaign coffers in the black.

All this spinning is making me dizzy.

-- RSM

UPDATE 12:15 a.m.:

Rush Limbaugh calls in to Fox News:

"I don't think the Republican race is anywhere near over, as the Democratic race might be. ...

Huckabee "is not going to be critical of McCain at all. ... I think the Republican race is a long, long way from being over. ...

Huckabee "doesn't have Reagan credentials. ... This election is not going to be about Iraq, it's not going to be about the war. ... If it's Obama, it's going to be about ideas. ... I think it's shaping up to be exciting."

"There is a trend in the news media ... Good news is simply not allowed to happen. ... I don't think there's that much angst individually. .... 96% of the American people are paying their mortgages. ... not desolate. ..."

"This has got a long way to go."

"I was watching all the networks tonight. ... This is a historic night ... for the first time, a black candidate has won a presidential primary. ..."

On Hillary: "This was the worst night of her life. ... Inevitable candidates do not lose."

-- RSM

UPDATE 11:55 p.m.:

Here are your Republican numbers, with 1,530 of 1,781 precincts (86 percent) reporting:

• Huckabee 34%
• Romney 25%
• Thompson 13%
• McCain 13%
• Paul 10%
• Giuliani 3%

-- RSM

UPDATE 11:40 p.m.:

Via Hot Air, here's video of Huckabee campaign boss Ed Rollins talking to Chris Wallace of Fox News:

-- RSM

UPDATE 11:35 p.m.:

To say that Huckabee is not the favorite of most conservative bloggers is a huge understatement. Here's Ace of Spades:

Huckabee was able to shade his record, lie to Iowa voters and play underhanded political games and still win based almost entirely on the fact that he is a Christian. Disheartening doesn't even begin to describe it.

-- RSM

UPDATE 11:30 p.m.:

An e-mail statement from John McCain's campaign:

"I thank each and every Iowan who braved the cold to caucus tonight, as well as my tremendous Iowa staff and leadership for all of their hard work over the past year. They worked wonders with far fewer resources than their competitors. I also congratulate Governor Huckabee on his victory tonight.

"Now the campaign turns to New Hampshire for the first-in-the-nation primary. As Granite State voters know best, I will continue to deliver straight talk about the critical issues facing our country. I will talk about the unique experience that prepares me to lead as commander in chief from day one, and makes me the only Republican who can win the White House in 2008.

"We started this together, New Hampshire, eight years ago. In five days, we're going to send the same message we did then: change is coming."

-- RSM

UPDATE 11:25 p.m.:

Did I say "annoying talking heads"? Susan Estrich is now on Fox.

Meanwhile, Biden just quit the race. I think it's now official: Hillary finished third. And looks like Thompson edged out McCain for third place among the Republicans.

-- RSM

UPDATE 11:06 p.m.:

Obama speaks: "They said this day would never come. They said our sights were set too high. ... Defining moment in history. "

Schools, churches, small towns, big cities. "Our time for change has come."

"A coalition for change that stretches through Red States and Blue States, because that's how we'll win in November ....

"We are choosing hope over fear ... unity over division ... change is coming to America."

The crowd is screaming and chanting with enthusiasm.

"I'll be a president that finally makes health care affordable and available to every American.

"Middle class tax cut ... free this nation from the tyranny of oil ... ends this war in Iraq and finally brings our troops home. ...

"Common threats of terrorism ... nuclear weapons ... climate change and poverty ..."

"Give it up for Michelle Obama!"

"In the face of impossible odds, people who love this country can change it. ... My journey began on the streets of Chicago ... organizing and working and fighting to make people's lives just a little bit better."

"I know how hard it is. ... But sometimes there are nights like this. ... Inherit a planet that is a little cleaner and safer. ... You'll be able to look back with pride ... This was the moment when it all began. ... This was the moment when the improbable beat what Washington always said was inevitable. ...

"This was the moment when we finally beat back the politics of fear ... and cynicism. ... This place where America remembered what it means to hope. ...

"Something better awaits us if we have the courage to reach for it ...."

Selma and Montgomery. "Hope is what led me here today. ... A story that can only happen in the United States of America."

"Ordinary people can do extraordinary things. ... We are the United States of America. ... We are ready to believe again."

-- RSM

UPDATE 11:05 p.m.:

OK, now the Fox News people are getting on my nerves, too. They keep re-stating the obvious -- e.g., Huckabee got the evangelical vote -- as if it were some profound insight. And the continual bombastic exaggeration: "A historic night," Shep Smith just said.

The problem seems to be generic to TV news. I don't watch much TV news, and every time I'm forced to watch it, like tonight, I remember why I don't watch it. TV news is like news for the illiterate. It continually insults the intelligence of the viewer.

Well, Obama's about to speak, so I get to stop listening to talking heads for a few minutes.

-- RSM

UPDATE 10:50 p.m.:

Huckabee is a very effective public speaker. Michael Steele said that just now on Fox News. (The TV channel got changed because of the annoying Wolf Blitzer factor.)

-- RSM

UPDATE 10:40 p.m.:

Now, Huckabee's speech: He loves Iowa, loves his wife, who will be a wonderful first lady, he says.

Chuck Norris is standing behind Huckabee. (Who needs Secret Service?)

"Tonight's a celebration for everybody on our team. ... I'm amazed. I'm encouraged."

"It starts here in Iowa ... goes all the way through to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue ..."

"Tonight the people of Iowa made a choice. ... Americans are looking for a change ... a challenge ... Bring this country back together. ...

"We carry those convictions ... to bring this country to its greatest day ever."

"This election is not about me, it's about we."

"Not a ruling class, a serving class. ... We the people."

Quoting Chesterton! I'm impressed!

Talks about the Founders, Declaration of Independence, "life, liberty, pursuit of happiness."

His parents made "incredible sacrifices."

"I ask you to join me. ... We will do whatever it takes to make America a better country. ... Now, it's on from here to New Hampshire ... It started here in Iowa."

-- RSM

UPDATE 10:35 p.m.:

Sen. Chris Dodd just dropped out of the Democratic campaign, as previously rumored. The Richardson-Obama rumor was also true, so that's 50-50 so far.

-- RSM

UPDATE 10:25 p.m.:

Now, it's Hillary's turn:

"This a great night for Democrats. ... unprecedented turnout ... a Democratic president in the White House in 2009 ... I congratulate Senator Obama and Senator Edwards ... together we have presented the case for change ...."

More: "Keep focused ... how will we win in November 2008? ... I am ready for that contest. ..."

Madeleine Albright standing behind her.

"The job is enormous. ... I believe we are going to make the right decision. ... We're not just trying to elect a president, we're trying to change our country."

"If we don't begin paying attention to the people who do the work and raise the families ... we will not recognize America in a few years."

More: "We're going to reclaim the future of our country."

"If you are concerned ... break the shackles of dependence on foreign oil ... global warming ... unfunded mandate known as NCLB ... then please join me in this campaign. ...

"This country deserves everything we can give to it." Troops "need a commander-in-chief who respects them."

More: "I know that we're going to get up in the morning and keep pushing as hard as we can. .... This great democracy of ours ... God bless you."

-- RSM

UPDATE 10:15 p.m.:

John Edwards now on CNN, talking about "standing up to corporate greed."

More: "Corporate greed has got a stranglehold on America." His daddy worked 36 years in the mill.

"The torch has been passed. ... leave America better than we found it."

"Record profits ... 47 million Americans ... have to beg for health care."

Gloom. Doom. Agony on me. Deep dark depression, excessive misery ...

More: "When we speak up for single moms ... veterans who are homeless ... America's a better place ... it says something about our character. ... What began tonight in the heartland of America. ... You have created ... a tidal wave of change."

(I was bracing myself for a "Dean scream" for a minute there)

-- RSM

UPDATE 10:10 p.m.:

Here's your "Fox calls it for Huckabee" post. By the way, I just looked up at CNN, and they've now got Donna Brazile on the set. But the sound's turned down, because Wolf Blitzer is so annoying that nobody in the newsroom can think while he's talking.

-- RSM

UPDATE 10:05 p.m.:

Now 93 percent of precincts reporting for Democrats:

• Obama : 37.2%
• Edwards : 30.0%
• Clinton : 29.6%

Hillary was supposedly the "inevitable" candidate, and may place third in Iowa, but she still has enough money to stay in the race, while Edwards -- who out-performed her -- may have to pack it in because of a lack of cash.

-- RSM

UPDATE 10 p.m.:

Spared the misery of listening to CNN talking heads, Michelle Malkin was watching Fox News and says Huckabee campaign honcho Ed Rollins basically confirmed Amanda Carpenter's story.

-- RSM

UPDATE 9:45 p.m.:

More than 80 percent of precincts reporting:

• Obama : 36.8%
• Edwards : 30.2%
• Clinton : 29.9%

-- RSM

UPDATE 9:40 p.m.:

Here's the CNN "Obama wins" story, which is a lot less annoying than listening to the CNN talking heads chatter on about their "entrance poll" demographics.

-- RSM

UPDATE 9:35 p.m.:

David Gergen is on CNN counting Edwards dead, and saying that Hillary wasn't expected to win Iowa anyway. The other CNN talking heads -- who are all white, by the way -- are discussing Hillary and the black vote.

-- RSM

UPDATE 9:30 p.m.:

CNN just projected Obama the winner. Michael Crowley of the New Republic reports that the rumored Richardson-Obama deal made a difference in the precinct he attended.

-- RSM

UPDATE 9:25 p.m.:

Romney has conceded. DNC Chairman Howard Dean is currently on CNN.

-- RSM

UPDATE 9:20 p.m.:

Bellantoni's liveblogging in Des Moines.

-- RSM

UPDATE 9:15 p.m.:

Now, with 965 of 1,781 precincts reporting (that's more than half), Obama seems to be pulling away with 34 percent, and Hillary and Edwards are neck-and-neck (about 31 percent) for second place.

-- RSM

UPDATE 9:05 p.m.:

At last ... actual votes:

• Obama : 33.33%
• Edwards : 32.10%
• Clinton : 31.75%

687 of 1781 precincts reporting.

Holy cow! Hillary running third?

-- RSM

UPDATE 9 p.m.:

CNN's Wolf Blitzer just got all excited about a "projection" that Huckabee has won Iowa. Sorry -- I'm waiting for actual votes.

-- RSM

UPDATE 8:55 p.m.:

While awaiting Iowa results (and being annoyed by TV talking heads) here's something new on the New Hampshire push-polling investigation, via e-mail from the John McCain campaign:

U.S. Senator John McCain's New Hampshire Vice Chair, former Congressman Chuck Douglas (R-NH), today issued the following statement on his comments regarding the New Hampshire Attorney General's push-polling investigation:
"In the course of calling on all campaigns to fully disclose any relationship they have or do not have with Moore Information, I suggested that the Romney campaign had possibly used the poll in question to message test. It was a mistake to suggest that this opinion was anyone's other than my own. I was speaking only for myself and not the McCain campaign and I regret any confusion my remarks caused."

The blogs are all over this story.

By the way, this item was previously posted, but accidently got deleted sometime after the Chinese food arrived -- must have been the MSG.

-- RSM

UPDATE 8:40 p.m.:

TV talking heads are talking about this "entrance poll":

John Edwards lagged behind his Democratic rivals in a survey of voters entering caucuses by The Associated Press and the television networks.

Iowans rendered their judgments in meetings at 1,781 precincts from Adel to Zwingle, in schools, firehouses and community centers where the candidates themselves could not follow.

In interviews as they entered the caucuses, more than half of all the Republicans said they were either born-again or evangelical Christians, and they liked Huckabee more than any of his rivals. Romney led handily among the balance of the Iowa Republican voters, according to the survey.

First it was exit polls. Now, it's entrance polls. They can't just wait and count the votes, because TV talking heads have to have something to talk about.

-- RSM

UPDATE 7:55 p.m.:

Voting has begun, as has the long wait for results. Democratic results here, Republican results here.

Big news here in The Washington Times newsroom? The Chinese food has arrived. I'm having the veggie spring rolls.

-- RSM

UPDATE 7:45 p.m.:

Michelle Malkin is posting Iowa predictions or, as she says, "Place your bets."

Remember: Politics is a game, just like football. You cheer for your team and it's always more fun if you bet on it. The difference is that when your team loses in football, the opponent doesn't get to raise your taxes or invade foreign countries.

-- RSM

UPDATE 7:35 p.m.:

Hot Air's Iowa Caucus open thread is now open.

-- RSM

UPDATE 7:25 p.m.:

This is classic:

Contrary to news reports from state and national media, three of Iowa's Democratic campaigns want their supporters to know that no blanket campaign directive has been issued, instructing supporters to throw support behind a different candidate during tonight's caucus.

So, a blanket denial of all the rumors they'd previously denied. Now that's what I call news ....

-- RSM

UPDATE 7:10 p.m.:

The second-choice, who's-going-to-quit guessing game:

• Is Chris Dodd toast?
• Fred Thompson dropping out? No way.
• Richardson backing Obama?
• Biden backing Obama? Nope.

Rumors. Denials. Rumors of denials. There may actually be some news in all that -- but that's just a rumor.

-- RSM

UPDATE 6:50 p.m.:

Eric Kleefeld of TPM Election Central has posted his "Idiot's Guide to the Democratic Caucuses."

Eric probably doesn't mean to imply that Iowa Democrats are idiots.

-- RSM

UPDATE 6:40 p.m.:

Ross Douthat of the Atlantic Monthly says of Mitt Romney: "And by golly, he annoys the ever-living heck out of me," and Rod Dreher says he "just can't abide the guy." Something to do with this video:

What's so annoying? Are they just jealous of Mitt's great hair?

-- RSM

UPDATE 6:20 p.m.:

Remember the anti-Romney attack ad that the Huckabee camp decided to cancel at the last minute? They aired it anyway:

The ad Huckabee said he decided not to run has now appeared at least three times in Iowa anyway. It accuses Romney of being "dishonest" but shades the facts in the process.

In another ad Huckabee claims to have signed the most broad-based tax cut in Arkansas history. But as we've noted repeatedly, he signed bigger tax increases than cuts.

(Hat tip: Memeorandum)

-- RSM

UPDATE 5:30 p.m.:

At Townhall.com, Jonathan Garthwaite says Amanda Carpenter caught Huckabee campaign chief Ed Rollins planning more "bare knuckles" attacks against Mitt Romney:

Overheard Rollins' conversation while dining in a restaurant called Winston's located closely to Huckabee's Iowa headquarters and took notes on my computer. Below is a compilation of what I heard:

He distinctly talked about going negative in South Carolina and told someone on the phone to 'put some good in there if you have to, with the bad. Do what you gotta do." ... (MORE)

Well, so much for the 11th Commandment ....

-- RSM

UPDATE 5:55 p.m.:

Hot Air links the Carpenter item and headlines it: You stay classy, Huckabee camp

-- RSM

UPDATE 6:10 p.m.:

The ethics of reporting an overheard conversation can be debated, but meanwhile, Carpenter's got an above-the-banner Drudge link.

-- RSM

* * *MORE UPDATES BELOW* * *

Polls, pundits, fundraising, ads -- all the preliminaries are over, and now it's finally time for the Iowa caucuses.

The Washington Times will continually update the results tonight, with reporters Stephen Dinan, Christina Bellantoni and S.A. Miller on the ground in Iowa.

Campaigns are scrambling to turn out their voters, and Ms. Bellantoni found one family of Iowa Democrats split three ways between John Edwards, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Fishwrap will be following the blog reaction tonight, and you can get started with the last-minute polls via Memeorandum.

Updates to come ...

-- Robert Stacy McCain, assistant national editor, The Washington Times

UPDATE 5:45 p.m.:

At CQ Politics, Eric Pfeiffer -- a former reporter for The Washington Times -- says Fred Thompson's campaign is furious about a rumor that he would quit the Republican race if he performed poorly in tonight's caucus:

Thompson adviser Mary Matalin just told MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell that Thompson "unequivocally" denies the rumor and will not drop out no matter what happens in Iowa tonight. . . .

However, the story has already likely damaged Thompson, whether it was accurately reported or not. Conservative blog Red State jumps to Thompson's defense, refuting the Politico piece in two separate posts.

-- RSM

UPDATE 6:05 p.m.:

Allapundit at Hot Air has an extended analysis of the who-to-blame question surrounding the Thompson rumor, plus this video:

-- RSM

UPDATE 6:30 p.m.:

Quin Hillyer of the American Spectator divides the GOP field into "real conservatives" -- Thompson, Romney and Rudy Giuliani -- vs. Huckabee and John McCain:

As truly horrific as it would be for the liberal and unethical Mike Huckabee to win the Republican presidential nomination, many Republicans still believe it would be almost as difficult to stomach the nomination of John McCain. . . .

Iowans in their caucuses and New Hampsherites in their primary have the first chances to winnow the Republican field. They would be doing the whole country a great disservice if they winnow one or more of the real conservatives out of the race, while boosting the chances of the two candidates who have done the most to poke the eyes of the Reaganites.

Read the whole thing.

-- RSM