At Reason's Hit & Run blog, David Weigel makes a simple point:
Four years ago George W. Bush released his fundraising numbers for the third FEC quarter: $49.5 million. This week the top four Republicans released their numbers:In other words, Republican presidential fundraising has declined by 27 percent since four years ago, and the Democratic presidential field is outraising Republicans by 63 percent.Rudy Giuliani - $11 million
Mitt Romney - $10 million
Fred Thompson - $9.3 million
John McCain - $6 millionThat's a combined $36.3 million from the party that holds the White House, compared to $59.2 million from the top four Democrats.
Meanwhile, the latest polls show the leading Democratic contender, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, beating the leading Republican candidates: She beats Rudy Giuliani by more than 5 points, beats Fred Thompson by more than 10 points, and beats Mitt Romney by nearly 12 points.
As Quin Hillyer tells Jennifer Harper, things look "grim" for Republicans:
"I hear too much griping and not enough effort to find common cause and work on behalf of that cause," Mr. Hillyer said. "When everything looks grim, that's the time to let bygones be bygones and start rebuilding."In the same article, Republican strategist Craig Shirley says the GOP is "due for a reality check":
"It's going to get darker before it gets lighter. We need a national tutorial for what I call 'fetal' Republicans. They need a class in the basics," Mr. Shirley said.
-- Robert Stacy McCain, assistant national editor, The Washington Times
UPDATE 8 p.m.:
Via Memeorandum, the question of Giuliani's "electability" seems to have drawn the Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol into the blogosphere:
The difference in Rudy's relative performance and Thompson's really isn't that great. And it's not as if Rudy is defeating Hillary while everyone else is losing. They're all losing, in accord with the current generic gap between the parties.And no sooner does Kristol make his blogging debut than he finds himself in a potential flame war with . . . John Podhoretz:
The more-electable argument hinges on the possibility that Giuliani might be able to win blue states on Election Night that are unreachable to any other Republican -- New Jersey primarily, but also Connecticut and Pennsylvania. This may be vital for Republicans, as it's possible that Ohio is lost to the GOP next year owing to the conduct of the party in the state.Podhoretz, however, tries to cool the flames by adding: "Bill is almost certainly right, though."
"Almost"? Upcoming MSM headline:
Neocons deeply divided over Giuliani electability
-- RSM
Comments (13)
It's more than a common cause, it is integrity. When the Republicans had the majority, if the Democrats pushed, the Republicans gave. When you keep giving, it's hard to stand for something. Like the after the fact whistle blowers, you don't earn much integrity if you don't risk much. That where we are now.
Posted by Larry Stone | October 8, 2007 12:50 PM
Principles don't change. It's events and circumstances that change," said Republican strategist Craig Shirley. "To say that the ideas of Ronald Reagan or Barry Goldwater don't apply today is akin to saying the Ten Commandments no longer apply either."The Republican Party, he suggested, is due for a reality check.
I'm not sure that someone who equates the political rhetoric of Ronald Reagan and Barry Goldwater with the Ten Commandments (i.e. the literal word of God Almighty) is in any position to lecture others on the need for a "reality check."
Given the current state of the conservative movement, this is like one inmate in the asylum criticizing another for not taking his Thorazine.
Posted by Anonymous | October 8, 2007 4:18 PM
I'm amazed at all of these gloom and doom predictions for the Republicans and not one single vote has been cast by anybody, repeat ANYBODY! Clinton will probably get the nomination, but if she goes head-to-head against someone like Giuliani it isn't goning to be easy for her. She's got a lot more baggage than John Kerry ever had and look what the Republicans did to him. And in 1972 nobody thought Nixon would beat McGovern because of the Vietnam War and yet Nixon won one of the biggest victories ever. Please, there is a lot of time between now and November 2008. I won't start believing any polls until November 1 or 2, 2008. Before that, none of it means anything.
Posted by Libertyship46 | October 8, 2007 5:25 PM
....that's just part of what the party has to worry about. Readers here may not like it, but....where am I in error here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/9/30/175456/019
Posted by dweb | October 8, 2007 6:22 PM
I'm with libertyship. No gloating until after the election. We KNOW that the Repukeliscum will come with all guns blazing. They will be running automated phone calls pretending to be from the Dems, calling at 2 AM. They will be sleaze beyond belief. To win, we must be tougher and more strong than they are.
No one wins until the vote is cast.
Posted by POed Lib | October 8, 2007 9:05 PM
Posted by dweb | October 8, 2007 6:22 PM:
1. The War. My sense is that most of the current disapproval with the GOP is over the war. In Oct. '08 it's gonna look a lot different than it does now. Better for us than you.
2. Third Party. In Dobson's dreams he has the pull to split the christian right vote. That's the only place. Conservative Christians aren't going anywhere. Pat Robertson '88 anyone? The "Christian Right" is a monolith in DNC fever dreams, nowhere else, and they'll vote for the candidate that most closely resembles their values, as ever.
3. Retiring Incumbents. That'll hurt. Some, but not to the extent you think.
4. The Rest of It. You're in a DKos fog of Rethug hate. Nobody is clamoring for SCHIP or any other further entitlement. People will take free money if it's offered, but they won't vote Dem if help they don't need is denied them. Hispanics may leave the party in some moderate numbers, but most vote Repub for good reasons and have already said no to the Dems for those reasons. Plus we're going to pick up a lot of working class Dems on illegal immigration that your party will ignore for the sake of non-voting illegals.
In short, the war is the only problem the GOP has today and Petraus is proving absolutely masterful in turning it around. What's left is for Crocker and Khalilzad to do what they do best (with the assistance of Sarkozy, Kuchner, Merkel, and Brown behind the scenes) and bring the sectarian sides together with support from the Saudis, Egyptians, and what elements in Iran can be cajoled into taking a more constructive line. Fall '08 is going to look a lot different than Fall '07 and the money will fill Repub coffers as news from Iraq continues to reshape the political battlefield in America. That sound you hear is a two by four, it's got "Dems peak early" written all over it. Brace yourself.
Posted by The Apologist | October 8, 2007 9:45 PM
The Republicans have serious, serious problems. I've gotten calls from the GOP numerous times asking for donations. I've turned them down every single time for the following reasons.
1. Immigration. Not only did the GOP nearly cave to the monied interest groups who want open borders, they portrayed anyone in favor of strict enforcement as a racist.
2. Spending. The Republicans are just as bad as the Democrats on earmarks. Senator Lott bragged about his earmarks, the "bridge to nowhere" was a Republican disaster, and the GOP had too many scandals that the MSM won't let them forget.
3. Stupidity. From Hariet Miers, to the Dubai ports deal, to the pathetic "virtual fence" to wasting time on steriods in sports - the Republicans have proven they're not serious about governing as conservatives.
4. Not fighting the MSM on the war. The President has all but given up fighting the war in the press. Even simple things like factual refuting of made up stories from the New Republic could easily be refuted by the Administration, but instead is left to bloggers.
Money talks. The GOP has a big problem because nobody trusts it anymore to govern like a Reagan Republican would. Now they're all fat cats living off earmarks, who feel fine about open borders, and having cronies run the government. I won't give a cent to the GOP until they get serious about immigration, national security, and spending.
Posted by Sydney Carton | October 8, 2007 10:38 PM
Apologist: Interesting moniker in this debate. Bottom line....see you back here the morning after election day next November and let's see who was right. Anyone who believes that..."the war is the only problem the GOP has today," has a very limited grip on reality.
Posted by dweb | October 8, 2007 11:49 PM
The American people are sick of the Republican party. I'm a precinct committeeman in suburban Chicago in a very Republican County. I have triple R's (people who have taken Republican ballots in the last three primaries) on my walksheets either denying they've ever voted Repub or slapping their foreheads when talking about Bush and the whole party. Iraq is a big part of it but not all by a longshot.
They're sick of being told they have to pay ever rising prices for healthcare by congressmen and women who take hundreds of thousands of dollars from
insurance cos. and big pharma. They're sick of taxpayer giveaways to the most profitable companies in the world. They're really sick of being lied to over and over again.
The Republican party is in for a historic comeuppance. And none too soon.
Posted by Anonymous | October 9, 2007 12:25 AM
Hmmm I think you are whistling in the dark. I was a Republican but have left the party due to the non-performance of this President. You can dream on but I know 22 others in my family who have done the same. This bunch in power now has totally ignored the people of our country, bombed heck out of Iraq, try to warmonger Iran, ran a surplus into a huge defici, hocked our kids future with their uncontrolled spending, never asked anyone but our military to sacrifice in this stupid war, and then have the guts to try and brag about how well they have done. As I say my friend, you are delusional.
Posted by Mari | October 9, 2007 2:54 AM
If any Republican doesn't think James Dobson has influence over the Religious Right, he should read the new book about him called "The Jesus Machine." Dobson's sway is greater than that of Falwell and Robertson combined. This is mostly due to the reservoir of good will that stems from the good individual works of Dobson's Focus on the Family organization. Finally, there was a poll last week that showed Rudy falling to 30% support against Clinton nationally if a Religious Right candidate was thrown into the mix.
Posted by Kirk Tofte | October 9, 2007 4:55 AM
Conservatives are not on the ropes here, the moderates are the ones dying in the streets. As an Ohioan, it was Taft and the moderate weenies who killed the election, the Liberals ran against Taft and DeWine not Ken Blackwell. Americans will vote for security issues. HRC is a phoney and the radical Left are digging their political grave every time they open their mouths. GW has been a disappointment in several areas, but security and the economy are bedrock issues and we can win on those. Illegal immigration is a major key, we need to secure and defend our borders, and not compromise.
Posted by Russ Ramey | October 9, 2007 7:57 AM
The Apologist can't actually be serious, right?
If so, the GOP is in serious denial about 2008.
My comments:
1. What in the world makes you think the current disapproval with the GOP on Iraq is OVER? Just a "gut" feeling?
Here's my gut feeling. I teach at a local college in New Hampshire. I HONESTLY don't think, listening to my students, that Bush and his rubber-stamping GOP will be "forgiven" by the next generation of voters for invading Iraq and keeping us there for... well, for about a generation (or MORE).
2. I agree, no third party. But you can have all the Christians whose main issue is their stand against abortion. Democrats are picking up the Christians who care about the poor and the planet. Fair exchange.
3. Retiring incumbents -- It will hurt "some" but not to the extent that we think??!!??
Pray, do tell how you came up with THIS one?
I've never known a political adviser to believe that retiring incumbents don't hurt their party in an election. Add to that the fact that the GOP is broke and actually in debt, and it's a disaster waiting to happen.
And rumor has it that all the GOP retirees haven't even announced yet.
Yes, pray tell us all how you've come to this very unusual conclusion?
4. And then the complete and utter melt-down:
~ "You're in a DKos fog of Rethug hate."
~ "Nobody is clamoring for SCHIP or any other further entitlement."
~ "Hispanics may leave the party in some moderate numbers, but most vote Repub..."
~ "Plus we're going to pick up a lot of working class Dems on illegal immigration..."
~ "In short, the war is the only problem the GOP has today and Petraus is proving absolutely masterful..."
~ "...the money will fill Repub coffers as news from Iraq continues to reshape the political battlefield in America."
Whew.
Someone's been caught with a kool-aid mustache.
Posted by Jan | October 9, 2007 2:27 PM