Looking for a cheap closer on the waiver wire?

Check out Kansas City's bullpen, where Octavio Dotel suffered a setback during his recovery from a strained oblique. That leaves the save opportunities in the hands of Joakim Soria, a rookie right-hander picked up from the Padres in the Rule 5 draft.

From Thursday's Kansas City Star:

"They don't take good swings off of (Joakim Soria)," Bell said. "For me, that’s the determining factor of whether a guy has the stuff (to close) or not. It's not so much 95 or 98 (mph). It's what kind of swings are guys taking?"

So far in five innings, Soria has allowed a hit, no runs and five strikeouts.

Users of fantasy baseball at ESPN.com must be freaking out at the moment.

ESPN has been reporting problems with its fantasy baseball games since the start of April, and essentially decided today to start the whole fantasy season over again because it could not get the problems fixed. (Most of the snafus had to do with the ability to change and update rosters.)

ESPN told fantasy users that it must wipe out all fantasy scoring from the first 11 days of the baseball season, and reset all team lineups to those used on Opening Day. Scoring would then be implemented retroactively using those lineups, and any changes that took place between then and now would be wiped out.

"Through extensive testing, this solution -- while extreme -- has repeatedly shown to restore the game to full and normal operation," ESPN told its users. "We are sorry to have to make such an aggressive change, and fully recognize the impact this will have. This action was our only option because of the nature of the issues and their potential to compound if not addressed on a fundamental level. Ensuring the integrity of the season ahead for ALL players is tremendously important to us and this solution ensures that all players will be treated equally."

While it's true this solution ensures that things can now proceed without further problems, it's an awfully drastic step that could easily be an impetus for users to switch to other fantasy providers such as Yahoo in the future. (Full disclosure: I'm in a Yahoo-based league and have never considered switching, mainly because we never have a problem with them.)

Users of ESPN leagues with a fee are expected to get their money back.

No word if there will be compensation for the guy who saw ESPN.com void his Brad Lidge-for-Alex Rodriguez deal.

Put Angels prospect Brandon Wood on your radar for the late rounds of your fantasy baseball draft -- and, perhaps higher if it's a keeper league.

The slugging shortstop has been moved to third base in spring training, according to the LA Times, a move which should mean an earlier promotion to the big league club:

Speculation turned to reality Wednesday when the Angels began working shortstop Brandon Wood, the organization's best position-playing and power prospect, at third base, a move that could hasten the 22-year-old's arrival in the big leagues and eventually provide a jolt to the Angels lineup.

... [Chone] Figgins will open this season as the team's third baseman, but if Wood shows in exhibition games that he can handle the position, he will probably open 2007 as a third baseman at triple-A, or at least split time between third and short. If he excels at Salt Lake, he would be a candidate for a promotion.

Wood has great size (6-foot-3, 190 pounds) and has crushed the ball over the last two years in the minor leagues. He had 43 homers in 2005 and 25 more last season, but he has played only four games in Class AAA.

I have a group of friends slogging their way through a live message board draft right now, updating the draft board as it goes along; it started late last week. Each of the 12 teams kept four players going in to the draft.

When it got to Round 12, one of the competitors selected Nick Johnson, a selection that quickly drew snickers from the rest of the group. At that point, I sent him a link to Mark Zuckerman's story that described Johnson's difficulty walking -- an essential skill in baseball. No one has any idea when he'll be ready to play this season, but there he was getting an "oops" selection in front of guys who will actually step on the field in April such as Aubrey Huff, Brian Giles, Ryan Shealy and Austin Kearns, just to name a few available bats.

But it gets better. That guy's twin brother (no, seriously) selected Francisco Liriano just four rounds later. Now Liriano was a phenomenal pitcher last year, but he will miss all of this season with Tommy John surgery. Two guys who will win at least 15 games each this season -- Cliff Lee of the Indians and Jon Garland of the Chicago White Sox --- went seven picks later.

So do your research. It will save you a roster spot or two, as well as some laughter at your expense.

Since this is a Nationals site, let's for a moment consider which Nationals players actually have significant fantasy value this season. For those of you in leagues that use both AL and NL players, that list is fairly short, but there are a handful of players that could make significant contributions to NL-only leagues:

John Patterson is one of those players with mixed league value, although that depends almost entirely on his health. Patterson's win-loss record in 2005 doesn't truly reflect how valuable he was, as his 3.13 ERA in 198.1 innings along with 185 strikeouts placed him among the best starting pitchers in baseball. But his inability to stay healthy last season resulted in only eight less-than-stellar starts, far fewer than his 31 in 2005. If Patterson can make 30 starts in 2007, he'll be an excellent candidate to post similar numbers to 2005. But with a lineup that is among baseball's worst, don't expect him to receive enough run support to win more than 10 games.

Even closers on bad teams have value, which is why Chad Cordero can also help mixed league teams. Much like the Nationals' lineup will cost Patterson wins, it will also cost Cordero saves. Don't expect him to be in the same position as 2005 when he racked up 47 saves and an All-Star appearance. If Cordero even has 47 save opportunities, let alone saves, in 2007, it would be a major surprise; make sure you aren't expecting any more than 30 saves out of Cordero. He's among the best closers in baseball, but it's typically teams with the best records that produce closers with the most saves. For NL-only teams, Cordero is still among the Top 10 closers in the league because even with his save opportunities in short supply, his job security is high.

Only three Nationals hitters should have much value in mixed leagues, the most notable being third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who was among the best rookies in baseball last season. Zimmerman's .287 average, 20 home runs and 110 RBI made him among the best hitting third basemen and there's no reason to think he won't continue to improve in 2007. His RBI opportunities may dimish with Nook Logan hitting leadoff instead of Alfonso Soriano, but his average and power numbers shouldn't be affected by his weak supporting cast. His 11-for-19 stolen bases were a pleasant surprise and if he can improve his success rate, he could be a sleeper source for 15-20 steals.

Austin Kearns could be a potential late-round sleeper in mixed leagues due to his potential that he never quite lived up to in Cincinnati. Last year between his time with the Reds and Nationals was the first season Kearns had more than 500 at-bats and he delivered 24 home runs and 86 RBI. With a starting job guaranteed heading into spring training, Kearns should improve on his RBI numbers being in the middle of the Nationals' lineup. However, the move from the launching pad known as the Great American Ballpark to RFK Stadium hasn't helped his power numbers as his home runs dropped from 16 to 8 after the trade (in 113 fewer at-bats).

Position flexibility is an underrated aspect of a player's value and Felipe Lopez's potential move to second base would improve his draft value. The crop of second basemen in the National League isn't nearly as daunting as shortstops, which include All-Stars Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins as well as up-and-coming players like Hanley Ramirez and Stephen Drew. Lopez's 44 steals were among the league best last season and while the large confines of RFK Stadium will hurt Lopez's power numbers it should encourage him to attempt more stolen bases.

The remaining players could provide value to NL-only teams but barring a major breakout, won't likely find a role on a mixed league team:

Nook Logan has potential for 20-plus stolen bases atop the Nationals' lineup, but only if he can get on base. Logan has only drawn 40 walks in his three-year career and his .337 on base percentage will need to improve if he's going to have the opportunity to steal enough bases to be an effective outfielder on a fantasy team.

Ryan Church has shown flashes in his career but has yet to put together a complete season. Church has 20 home runs and 83 RBI in his 527 career at-bats, so if he is given a full-time job this spring you can expect him to deliver solid numbers. However, if he becomes a platoon player once again, his value drops dramatically.

When healthy, Nick Johnson was among the NL's best first-basemen last season, but a broken leg will sideline him for a significant part of 2007. Even if he doesn't return until the All-Star break, NL-only teams should consider using a late-round pick on Johnson and storing him on your disabled list until he's healthy.

Someone has to claim the other four starting rotation spots aside Patterson, but don't expect much from them. They may rack up some cheap wins but most will do serious damage to your team's ERA and WHIP. Jerome Williams has shown potential in San Francisco and Chicago and Matt Chico was one of Arizona's top pitching prospects before being traded to Washington, but expect both to struggle and the lack of run support will cost them wins.

One of the most talked about stories in spring training is Daisuke Matsuzaka's debut with the Boston Red Sox.

Matsuzaka was a superstar in Japan; leading his country to a World Baseball Classic title and winning MVP honors only increased his profile.

Those achievements won't help him in Boston, though. So let's try and project what kind of numbers he can be expected to put up with the Red Sox this season.

First, let's look at Matsuzaka's career statistics with the Seibu Lions in Japan:

YEAR IP W L BB K ERA
1999 180 16 5 87 151 2.60
2000 167.2 14 7 95 144 3.97
2001 240.1 15 15 117 214 3.60
2002 73.1 6 2 15 78 3.68
2003 194 16 7 63 215 2.83
2004 146 10 6 42 127 2.90
2005 215 14 13 49 226 2.30
2006 186.1 17 5 34 200 2.60

There's been little, if any, proof that statistics in Japanese baseball correlate to its American counterpart, but the three categories to take note of are the innings pitched, walks and strikeouts.

Matsuzaka already has pitched more than 1,400 innings in his Japanese professional career, not including the World Baseball Classic and other non-regular season games.

Matsuzaka may only be 26 years old, but he's already pitched nearly 600 more innings than another 26-year-old on Boston's staff, Josh Beckett. It's up to each individual person whether they view that as a positive or a negative, but more and more young pitchers are having serious arm injuries with nowhere near the amount of innings Matsuzaka has thrown.

Let's look at two other prominent pitchers from Japan who came to America with similar expectations:

Hideo Nomo came to Los Angeles in 1995 and took the National League by storm with a 13-6 record, 2.54 ERA and 236 strikeouts. However, in each of the next three seasons with the Dodgers his statistics declined, bottoming out in 1998 where in only 12 starts, he went 2-7 with a 5.05 ERA.

Hitters adjusting to Nomo's unusual throwing motion were most likely to blame, but it wasn't until Nomo returned to Los Angeles in 2002 that he posted another season with a sub-4.00 ERA. At the age of 38, Nomo's major league career is virtually finished, with a 123-109 record, 4.21 ERA and 1,915 strikeouts. Matsuzaka's throwing motion is less gimmicky than Nomo's, with a slight delay but not as likely to distract opposing hitters.

Two years after Nomo arrived in L.A., Hideki Irabu arrived in another major market, New York. After Irabu refused to play for the Padres, the Yankees traded for the rotund pitcher. While the Yankees won two World Series with Irabu on their roster, he only pitched in one postseason game and was never the impact pitcher the Yankees thought they were getting.

His best season came in 1998 where he recorded 13 wins with a 4.06 ERA. He bottomed out with the Expos in 2000, starting 11 games and finishing with a 7.24 ERA. He would pitch for two more seasons after that and retired after the 2002 season with a disappointing 5.15 ERA and only 34 wins.

Would Matsuzaka be receiving the tremendous hype if he wasn't the MVP of the World Baseball Classic or pitching in Boston instead of, say, Kansas City? Of course not. But don't let that dictate where you draft him. There isn't a consistent record of either success or failure for Japanese pitchers in the majors, but neither Nomo nor Irabu had a previous record of success pitching against major league hitters like Matzusaka did in the WBC.

My prediction? 15 wins, 3.90 ERA, 180 strikeouts. Good enough for a No. 3 or No. 4 starter on your staff, but not a staff ace. But with an unknown commodity like Matsuzaka the possibility for a Cy Young-caliber performance exists, which surely will drive up his value on draft day.

To replace the injured Kris Benson, the Baltimore Orioles have signed Steve Trachsel. In a Mets uniform last season, Trachsel gave you 15 wins. Not too bad, huh? Benson, on the other hand, gave you 11 wins. Let's look a bit further into the numbers:

Benson
ERA: 4.82
Wins: 11
SO: 88
Complete games: 3
Shutouts: 0

Trachsel
ERA: 4.97
Wins: 15
SO: 79
Complete games: 1
Shutouts: 0

Trachsel had a few more wins. Other than that, nothing exceedingly different in the fantasy world. But Trachsel's team, the Mets, won 97 games; Benson's team, the Orioles, won but 70. But more important, Benson had to face the powerhouses in the AL East; Trachsel did not.

So the question is: In your fantasy draft, do you rank Trachsel the way you would rank Benson? I would suggest otherwise. Imagine if Trachsel was in an Orioles uniform last season. Would he even have 11 wins?

Welcome to The Washington Times' Fantasy Baseblog.

This is just a small part of our interactive baseball experiment here at the end of New York Avenue. But it promises to be pretty fun and lively ... and it will give me an excuse to conduct fantasy baseball research on company time. Not that any of you have ever done something like that.

Our goal is to bring you occasional news you can use as you prepare for your draft and then throughout the baseball season. I doubt you'll see too many lists here (though we'll certainly link to a few), but as we come across interesting players, meaningful news and others' insights worth sharing, we'll post it here.

We’ll share the knowledge; it's up to you what you do with it. Hopefully, it will help you win a trophy (or more importantly, some pride and/or cash).

Check back often as things start heating up down in Florida and over in Arizona, where I'm headed next month for my primary league draft. Expect a live update or two from whichever Cubs spring training game I attend while I’m out west. Perhaps I can pass along some love notes from Nats fans to the Cubs' new $136 million man?

Until then, my goal is to trick baseball purist Mark Zuckerman into sharing some first-hand fantasy news from Viera. Stay tuned.