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The most important fight of the campaign


Sen. John McCain and Republicans were absolutely beside themselves last week, reacting angrily to what otherwise seemed like a normal attack from Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean.


Responding to McCain's first campaign ad on Friday, Dean called McCain a "blatant opportunist who doesn't understand the economy and is promising to keep our troops in Iraq for 100 years."


Given that McCain's ad featured him in a North Vietnamese hospital bed as a POW, Republicans said Dean was attacking McCain's military service and began lashing back, demanding Dean apologize and the next day calling on Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton to denounce him for not apologizing.


At the same time, Republicans are trying to fight back against the 100 years war line, arguing it's been taken out of context.


What's going on here is a battle to set the tone for the rest of the campaign. If Republicans can force Dean to backtrack or make Democrats pull back from his charge, they will have set a ceiling on what attacks are acceptable for the next seven months. If, on the other hand, they fail, Dean is free to ratchet up the criticism, though always with the limit that he cannot explicitly attack McCain's military record.


Maybe more important is the 100 years argument. It's been debated back-and-forth, and Democrats continue to press it, even as a number of conservative columnists defend McCain, arguing he did not mean 100 years of war but rather military bases in a peaceful nation, just as the U.S. has in Europe, Japan and elsewhere.


If Republicans lose this argument, expect the next seven months to be the most vicious we've ever seen.


Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

DNC: McCain is taking 'tactical advantage'


The Democratic National Committee is circulating a quote that a
liberal blog
dug up from John McCain five years ago in which he says candidates should not try to game the public financing system for presidential elections for "tactical advantage."


They argue that's exactly what Mr. McCain is now trying to do by opting out of the system for the primaries, just months after he asked to be included.


On Nov. 21, 2003, Mr. McCain introduced a bill with his campaign finance partner Democratic Sen. Russell D. Feingold that would have revamped the public financing system, boosting the spending limits and making candidates have to take public financing for both the primary and general elections, or to reject it for both, but not pick and choose.


In his statement introducing the bill, Mr. McCain said:


"The purpose of the presidential public financing system is to allow candidates to run competitive races for the presidency without becoming dependent on or obligated to campaign donors. That purpose is undermined when a candidate opts out of the system to raise and spend large amounts of private money for a primary or general election race. Such candidates should not be able to reject public financing and then get the system's benefits when it suits their tactical advantage. A candidate should have to opt in or out of the system for the whole election."


If tactical advantage is what he was trying to stop then, it's just what he appears to be trying to gain now by picking and choosing when he will accept public funds and when he won't, all based on which allows gets him the most money.


Last year he applied to qualify for taxpayer-funded matching funds for the primary campaign, though his campaign says that does not mean he intended to take them. This year he announced he would, indeed, refuse federal funds, but, according to his campaign, will still take public funds for the general election starting in September.


It was clear from both Mr. McCain's and Mr. Feingold's statements that they were trying to stop folks from gaming the system like that. As Mr. Feingold said:


"One very important provision of this bill ties the primary and general election systems together and requires candidates to make a single decision on whether to participate. Candidates who opt out of the primary system and decide to rely solely on private money cannot return to the system for the general election. And candidates must commit to participate in the system in the general election if they want to receive federal matching funds in the primaries."


Mr. McCain's campaign rightly points out that his bill wasn't passed, and so the old — and in his view broken — system remains in place.


"The very reason that McCain advocated for that bill — the undisputed fact that the primary funding system is inadequate and completely broken — is the reason he is not staying in it now," said spokesman Brian Rogers.


They also say Sen. Barack Obama, one of his potential Democratic opponents, is considering breaking his own pledge to take public financing in the general election.


But the issue with the quote goes to whether Mr. McCain is consistent with his own principles. Even though the law doesn't require it right now, he could could choose to follow his own principles and opt out of public financing for the general election. But that could cost him millions of dollars.


As Mr. McCain said yesterday in talking about American leadership, sometimes you have to be the model citizen first if you want others to view you as a model. Here's his chance.


Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

On economy, McCain is humble, not ignorant


Carly Fiorina, former Hewlett-Packard boss and a John McCain supporter, says he's been unfairly bashed for his comment last year to reporters that he wasn't as educated on the economy as he should be.


"Frankly I think that comment was more a reflection of his natural humility," Fiorina, who is Republican National Committee Victory 2008 chairwoman, told reporters this afternoon.


As reported in the Boston Globe, McCain last year said: "The issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should."


The comment has been used repeatedly to indict McCain's plans for the economy, and Fiorina was irked, saying that's unfair.


"I think his understanding of the economy is very strong. It's one of the reasons I signed on with him about 18 months ago," she told reporters this afternoon, adding his record in the Senate voting on economic matters is more extensive than either Sens. Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton.


Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

McCain's honeymoon in the polls


Sure it's early, and sure the Democrats are still battling each other. But for now the polls show Sen. John McCain is in good shape when stacked up against either Sen. Barack Obama or Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton for the general election.


As always, the folks at RealClearPolitics.com have done all the work to average major polls. Their charts show both nationally and in the three major competitive swing states, Mr. McCain leads either Democratic opponent in every match-up except for versus Mrs. Clinton in Ohio.


That includes topping both Democrats in Florida, a state that appears more red with each election since 2000. But more important for him, he has a lead over both Democrats in Pennsylvania. That's consistent with polls last year, before Mr. McCain's summer tumble, that also showed him in solid position in Pennsylvania versus the Democrats.


It's that Ohio showing that should worry him. For a man who has said his economics background isn't as strong as it should be, he may have a difficult time swaying voters who care immensely about the issue and want to see immediate action.


Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

Tunnel vision on McCain


A year ago, when Democrats were just beginning their long primary presidential campaign, the contest essentially boiled down to who could toss the best zingers or the harshest criticism at President Bush. For a party out of power, that wasn't so surprising — they defined themselves in opposition to the man in power.


Now, with a new face on the Republican party, the fire has turned to Sen. John McCain.


This morning Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton touted her 5 percentage-point lead in a head-to-head poll match-up with McCain over the "much tighter" 2 percentage-point lead Sen. Barack Obama holds in that same poll. Meanwhile, McCain and Obama have sparred back and forth over Iraq several times over the last month, each time helping Obama show he can go toe-to-toe with McCain despite the older senator's far longer experience and war service.


McCain's long record, and his frequent press appearances, give Democrats plenty of ammunition, particularly on Iraq.


For the Democratic National Committee, it's the best of both worlds: They get to tie McCain to Bush, which they do in a new Web ad to the soundtrack of marching feet, signifying the two men walking in lockstep on Iraq.


In clip after clip the ad shows McCain using the exact same catch-phrases as Bush administration officials Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney and, of course, Bush himself. The most damning may be McCain's 2004 prediction that Americans would be "welcomed as liberators," just eight days after Cheney's similar prediction.


Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

McCain's bracket: A state secret?


Sen. John McCain's campaign is keeping his NCAA bracket a secret until after the games begin Thursday. Maybe he's afraid Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama will steal his selections?


The campaign is sponsoring a tournament contest for supporters to compete against McCain and against other supporters. The campaign is using a points system — 1 point for each first-round game correctly predicted, 2 points for round two, 4 points for round three, and so on — and the top finisher gets a John McCain fleece.


With McCain traveling overseas, including a visit to Iraq, he's got other things on his mind than basketball. But let's hope he's not going to pull the same trick I used as a sixth-grader, claiming I was waiting for the Sports Illustrated bracket which arrived in the mail on Thursday, which let me hold back my bracket until after the games started.


McCainBracket.jpg

Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

Budget fuels the political fire


Last night's budget debate provided plenty of ammunition for political attacks, and may have inaugurated another "voted for it before I voted against it" moment for Sen. Mary L. Landrieu of Louisiana.


In the course of 12 hours Landrieu, the Democrat whom Republicans have the best chance of defeating this year, voted three ways on the same estate tax cut proposal, offered by Sen. Jon Kyl.


During the first go-around, she was recorded voting against it until the last moment when, once it became clear her party could defeat it without her, she switched to vote in favor of it.


Hours later, though, Republicans put the same amendment back on the floor and Democrats were caught in a jam, with one of their senators missing. So Landrieu had to switch back and vote "No" again.


Republicans were firing gleeful e-mails to each other over her back-and-forth, and John Kerry's famous "for it before I was against it" comment from 2004 was repeated often. For her part, Landrieu blamed Republicans for not working in good faith, and said she had her own amendment to cut the tax that was rejected overwhelmingly.


"This morning I voted in good faith to show a willingness to work together on reducing the estate tax," she said, pointing to her own counter-proposal she offered. "This olive branch was refused."


She was just one of those who may suffer from the 44 votes cast during a 16-hour period that lasted into early this morning.


Sen. John McCain, Arizona Republican, might rue having missed 21 of those votes, including a chance to prove that he has embraced border security first on immigration.


He missed the vote on Sen. Jeff Sessions' amendment, which passed 61-37 and calls for National Guard troops to remain on the U.S.-Mexico border, calls for the border fence to be completed and boosts the ability of state and local police to enforce immigration laws.


McCain also missed a vote on Sen. Lamar Alexander's amendment to block the EEOC from suing the Salvation Army over its English-in-the-workplace policy.


Asked last night how intended to vote had be been there, McCain said he hadn't read either of them and didn't know.


Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama voted against both of those amendments — and matched each other's position on every other vote as well, leaving little difference for them to exploit. But in the general election they each can point to Mr. McCain's missed votes on police funding, worker training and spending on veterans.


Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

What would Romney bring to the ticket?


Mitt Romney last night made it clear he's got his eye on the vice presidential nomination. And for a man who spent at least $40 million of his own money on his presidential run, maybe he feels entitled.


But if so, he's not getting any public signals from John McCain that a VP nod is in the works.


Talking with reporters on his campaign plane today, McCain said he'd watched Romney's interview on Fox News Channel last night, in which the former Massachusetts governor said any hard feelings between him and McCain are over and he'd be honored to be tapped.


"I got that impression watching the interview last night," McCain said.


The issue for McCain is who brings what to the table. Romney did some real damage to McCain during the campaign, even drawing out the admission that the Arizona senator is not up on economic matters as much as he should be. Romney could help fill that gap, and would leave conservatives comfortable.


But Mike Huckabee drew a lot of new voters into the process, and has his own argument for augmenting a McCain ticket as the man best suited to stir religious conservatives.


The Republican Party has always been a coalition of defense, economic and social conservatives. McCain can claim the defense wing on his own, but needs help with the other two groups. The problem is finding one person who does both.


Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

Dems use immigration to split McCain, GOP


When Republicans settled on John McCain as their nominee, they knew they were getting someone with whom they had feuded repeatedly. Democrats are wasting little time in exploiting those divisions.


Immigration may be the toughest issue for McCain, since it involves his most recent bloody battle with his fellow party members. It involves an impossible balance — McCain wants to win Hispanic voters, but also needs to take steps to consolidate conservative voters who want to see him support a crackdown.


The next test will come soon. House Republicans are considering trying to force Democrats to vote on an enforcement-only bill sponsored by one of their own, Rep. Heath Shuler. CongressDailyAM, a publication covering Capitol Hill, reported today that the McCain campaign had signed off on the approach.


Sen. Bob Menendez today wrote a letter to McCain demanding he repudiate both the House Republican strategy and a package of immigration enforcement bills a group of Senate Republicans introduced yesterday.


"I respectfully ask that you, as a past supporter of comprehensive immigration reform, definitively reject both the Republican immigration package introduced yesterday in the Senate and the House Republican strategy to force a vote on the Shuler bill," Menendez wrote.


Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

The L word


Wonder what's going to unite conservatives around Sen. John McCain? It all comes down to the word "liberal."


Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour gave a preview after endorsing McCain yesterday in Washington: "Barack Obama is to the left of Big Bernie Sanders, and he's a socialist. Bernie Sanders is a socialist."


The basis for that judgment is the National Journal, which annually ranks senators' voting records and deemed Obama's the most liberal in 2007 — even more than Vermont's Bernie Sanders, an independent who caucuses with Democrats but is a self-professed socialist.


It was clear the National Journal ranking was going to come back to haunt Obama, just as the magazine's list in 2004 hurt John Kerry. But McCain appears ready to make far more use of it than the Bush campaign did four years ago.


"I promise you that by the end of this campaign that'll be right there on your refrigerator on one of those magnets," McCain campaign manager Rick Davis told reporters last month.


In yesterday's endorsement press conference, neither Barbour nor Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue gave a stirring defense of McCain, but both had plenty to say about Obama.


"John McCain is not as conservative as Haley Barbour. If John McCain was running against Fred Thompson, or Mike Huckabee, or Mitt Romney, or Rudy Giuliani, that's one thing. But if John McCain is running against Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, there's absolutely no question who the conservative candidate is," Barbour said.


He said it was "wishful thinking by the news media" that conservatives won't support McCain.


Perdue said the the key for him was a meeting the Republican governors had last week with McCain. Perdue said he came away with an appreciation for McCain's respect for federalism.


Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

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