Exit polls from Tuesday's Potomac primaries show where Sen. John McCain's general election strengths and weaknesses lie in facing Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton or Sen. Barack Obama in November.
The exit polls asked primary voters if they would be satisfied with each candidate as the nominee. About 75 percent of Republican voters in Maryland and Virginia said they would be satisfied with McCain, and 81 percent of Democratic voters said they would be satisfied with Obama.
Coupled with the huge turnout he is inspiring, those numbers suggest that Obama could be looking at historic levels of support and McCain could be looking at a difficult campaign.
The good news for him is that Democrats are far less happy with Clinton. Only 64 percent of Virginia voters and 68 percent of Maryland voters would be happy with her, the exit polls found.
Still, Clinton received more than 300,000 votes in Virginia in a losing effort while McCain collected less than 250,000 votes in his winning effort, which means the enthusiasm gap might be too much for any Republican to overcome this year.
— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times
Comments (14)
In each state, Obama won more than twice as many votes as McCain. The media seems to be playing this fact down, probably because it's not good for the news cycle to admit that McCain doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell. Also, just look at their respective speeches! McCain is saying that everything is fine and dandy! Get a grip, man! Looks like Obama is the next president!
Posted by Bill in NY | February 13, 2008 9:25 AM
I'm a white male who has voted for every Republican since Nixon. Except this year!
If it is Clinton and VP to TBD. I won't vote.
If it is Clinton/Obama I will vote for that to get to Obama.
If it is Obama, I will vote for him.
I think Huckabee is just an "anti-McCain" vote that doesn't stand a chance in the general election.
I am concerned about the Democratic Convention when Obama has the popular vote and Clinton makes her deals with the Super Delegates to win. Obama's supporters aren't going to like the fact that the "good ole boy" network of insiders have over shadowed their vote. I hope the Nation Guard is on alert for the riots.
Posted by Wade Morris | February 13, 2008 9:27 AM
This is an absolutely terrible analysist.
Posted by Jack | February 13, 2008 9:28 AM
I voted yesterday in Virginia and there was no question other than selection of Presidential nominee. So how and where did you get the information re voters satisfaction with each nominee? Is this just your interpretation of the data?
Posted by Gemini | February 13, 2008 9:33 AM
Have you considered the fact that there is no longer a race on the Republican side? Voters are not interested in participating in a non-primary. A Republican primary vote no longer counts, so Republicans stay home. The Democrats are in a historically tight race, so they vote. The disparity between the two primary races in the importance of one's vote affects turnout and the enthusiasm of the electorate. Once the general election comes around, the parameters will have changed. People in both parties will be faced with an important election.
Both turnout and exit poll data are affected by these conditions. In order to predict the outcome of the general election, you will need to poll "likely general election voters". Exit polling is skewed by the disparity between the two primary races.
Posted by Anonymous | February 13, 2008 9:44 AM
It's time for McCain and Clinton to step aside... America is looking for a Completely new kind of leader, with completely new ideas and ways of doing things... We have all seen what the old way of politics in this country brings, and we are paying for it dearly.
Over the last few years we have watched our freedoms being stripped from us, we have watched our young dying in a war that never should have been, on our home front we have watched our country go into a recession that WAS AVOILDABLE. We now must think of our people that are losing homes, the elderly which can bearly make ends meet, those who must choose between food and heat, and the countless number of those who have lost jobs with no more benefits to live on, not to mention those millions of Americans without health care nor means to get it. All of these things we owe to the Republican party over the last 8 years, and an old mentality of politics in Washington...
It is time for CHANGE IN OUR COUNTRY, no more statis quo, and old world politics.....
Obama 08!!!!!!!!!
Posted by Judith | February 13, 2008 9:45 AM
This is a race vote. The tribal trait shows up all over the place. In additon young whites believe it is the right thing to do because we owe the blacks something. This is a pathetic reason to choose a president. The blacks turned on the Clintons immediately and they would and will do the same no matter what the issue. The country will take a fall if Obama is elected as president, as we never dreamed about.
Posted by charles williams | February 13, 2008 9:47 AM
The GOP nomination is wrapped up--why would a ton of people show up to vote?
Posted by no | February 13, 2008 9:50 AM
Stephen,
I think you are jumping to conclusions way too quickly.
1. You are analyzing a very small portion of the demographics of the US and applying it to the whole nation. The Potomac states do not represent the mindset of the nation.
2. Many Republicans did not turn out because John McCain is the inevitable Republican winner, hence your comparison of numbers is flawed.
3. McCain could draw moderate Democrats if Sen. Obama leans too far left. Many are still waiting to see the details of Sen. Obama's plans.
4. November is still 9 months away and any number of international incidents could sway public opinion one way or the other.
5. Ultra-conservative Republicans will still vote for McCain as he is (at least in their minds) the lesser of two evils.
As a moderate Independent, I am not sure who I will vote for if the winners are Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain.
Thanks.
Posted by Eli | February 13, 2008 10:06 AM
Primaries were never a realistic measure for Elections results, and history has proven this fact,though it shows some clues , but nations destiny and fate can never be based on clues and speculations, it has to be build on facts and realities other wise the results will devastating ...do we have to give and example ????? the president has to be a qualified person he has to be the perfect one for the job ( no matter whether a democrat or a republican he is, as long as he ( or she ) will have the capabilities and visions to lead this country to the shores of prospect and safety.
he has to be an experienced true leader a decision maker,a convincing speaker ,a patriot , one who had scarified and comprehended the meaning of " giving to others and suffer for the sake of others" Mr.Obama falls under most of these categories, ( though Mrs.Clinton will be the front runner for the Dems.)but Mr. McCain falls under ALL these descriptions in addition to his military background( an advantage non of the other runners has) which will qualify him to be a genuine Commander in Chief and a tough leader during hard times , American needs a strong tough republican with broad and liberal mentality.
The next President is McCain , no doubts about this fact. Go for it Mac. you're the one.
Posted by Fahmi Saied | February 13, 2008 10:38 AM
While Barack Obama's resume is as thin as his rhetoric is vague, I cannot but rejoice at the prospect of Hillary Clinton's being defeated by him. As a Republican, I acknowledge that it would be to my advantage were Clinton to receive the nomination, since there are legions of people who would low-crawl over broken glass if that were required to defeat that would-be Evita, that Euro-socialist phony. Her prospects in the general election would be significantly poorer than those of Obama; even so, is not the prospect of the Clintons' finally getting their come-uppance simply too delicious to resist?
What can I say? I utterly despise the Clintons and their legacy of duplicity, manipulation, and outright depravity. I do not despise Obama.
Posted by Rick S. | February 13, 2008 10:53 PM
As a conservative Republican I'll vote for John McCain. A war hero and Senator for many years.
This country is fast approaching the time when spending reality will have to take hold.John McCain is the right man to face what's coming.
Posted by anonnymous | February 14, 2008 12:09 AM
anonn, McCain wants to continue spending to maintain the global empire, and admits he is weakest on economic issues.
When it comes to spending, Johnny Mac is just as much a drunken sailor in the Senate as any Democrat.
Instead of watching TV, check out the voting records of the candidates. You have Big government Socialists and a Big government conservative. None of the 3 remaining front runners have any record as a fiscal disciplinarian, or have shown the backbone to be able to say no when pandering for votes.
It's ok though. They've already spent your grandchildren's money, why care now that they are working on your great grandchildren's prosperity?
Posted by nathan | February 14, 2008 4:39 PM
There is another issue that many people missed. I know several Republicans who changed registration to vote for Obama. Essentially doing to the Democrats what independents and Democrats have done to Republicans. If you wanted to make a statement, that was the most interesting.
Did anyone look at how much fre-registration went on?
Posted by james Barends | February 16, 2008 1:33 PM