Could McCain's nomination mean an immigration deal this year?
Greg Siskind has come up with a scenario that argues Democrats should be tempted, now that John McCain is the likely Republican nominee, is to rush an immigration bill through this year.
"Do you think the GOP is going to allow their rank-and-file members to attack their nominee day in day out over the immigration issue? If they do, the results could be disastrous as McCain will be going around the country trying to unite a very fractured party that is already pretty suspicious of his conservative bona fides. Can you imagine one Republican after another having to come to the microphone to denounce the McCain-Kennedy bill (and that's what Reid and Pelosi need to call it every chance they get)? And then McCain being dogged by reporters asking about it multiple times each day?"
In his scenario, immigration could also be the tail that wags the dog — a way for Democrats to distract from their own intraparty presidential battle, particularly if the Clinton-Obama race goes all the way to a convention.
"[T]hrowing the immigration 'grenade' and stirring up the immigration storm in the GOP may make the Democrats bickering look pretty tame," he writes, adding that that would put pressure on Republican leaders to cut a deal on Democrats' terms to keep their own fight under wraps. Siskind says bringing back the bill this year "would have virtually no drawbacks" for Democrats.
It's an intriguing scenario, though it doesn't strike me as working out as easily as he puts it. In the first place, McCain has had to shift somewhat, embracing both an enforcement-first position that his own campaign manager says is now the consensus of the party. It would be impossible for McCain to back away from that now.
Second, it wasn't just Republicans that killed the bill. More than a dozen Democratic senators were happy to have a chance to vote against it, and on the House side, plenty of conservative-leaning Democrats will be begging their leaders not to go Siskind's recommended route.
Still, given that McCain has said he still supports the bill he wrote with Sen. Ted Kennedy — yet also says that bill is dead — Democrats must be at least a little tempted to prove him wrong and bring it back, just to see what he does.
— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times
Comments (16)
Who wants to pay more taxes? I don't mind paying for the military, but do mind paying for lazy people who are just waiting for government to give them food and money. They should stop making excuse not to work. Even just for tax issue, I will not go with Democrats. But if Huckabee gets the GOP nod, I will stay home.
Posted by Aiko | February 16, 2008 1:43 AM
Bring back the bill that everyone in government agreed on and the voters didn't. Yeah, good strategic move. Maryland voted out its incumbents, lets hope this will start a revolt against the deaf arrogance that is bureaucratic Washington.
Posted by Larry Stone | February 16, 2008 12:14 PM
I think it would be a great temptation for Pelosi and Reid, but it would be a disaster to ram that issue down the throats of the blue Dogs. The immigration bill was probably the only issue since 9-11 that nearly united the country. 80+% against it is the thing that draws the attention of politicians running for office. I can't think of any other subject that had such a strong showing by the public.
McCain can side step the issue by calling for the fence to be completed first then address the comprehensive bill (amnisty) after the election. He can appear stateman like and mature. It would also be the Democrats bringing it up for political points and putting a spotlight on the negtives about their congressional management. It would also put Obama in a fix since blacks opposed the bill as much as whites.
The other issue, quite simply, is this election is turning into the McGovernites verses the the Republicans. Immigration is a strong wedge issue that will ripple through the election and can fire up the conservative base to go after congressional and senate seats. The conservatives KNOW they beat the bill in Congress and it will highlight the fact that they can contain McCain very well if they control the House of Representatives.
On the surface, this is a Republican problem and a far-left wet dream. In reality, this could be a nightmare for mainstream democrats.
Posted by James Barends | February 16, 2008 1:29 PM
Democrats came up with an inane bill so that CIR would die this year. What they want is to wait until after the 2008 election and hope for Democrat in office. And if a Republican wins, then they have rolled the dice and tried, and at least they can prevent Bush from getting an immigration bill signed.
Anti-immigrant conservatives who don't realize this don't really understand CIR.
Siskend, as is typical of immigration lawyers who are clueless drolls, doesn't understand this as well.
Posted by GA Poster | February 17, 2008 2:17 AM
McCain Kennedy is just one of many reasons I won't vote for McCain. He may tell us he will seal the border, but I for one beleive that once elected, would do exactly as Bush has done.
Amnesty for the up to 30 million illegals here would bankrupt our already bankrupt country.
Posted by Lynette | February 18, 2008 1:19 AM
GA poster, you could not be more wrong.
Democrats were drooling to pass CIR last year because they knew when the disastrous consequences hit the American people down the road, the would have a Republican President to blame.
If the Dems get in the White House they are not going to want to pass CIR. As the ones in charge of both houses of Congress and the presidency, they know that the full weight of public wrath for the destruction caused by the legislation will fall onto their party.
Sure they will make some lukewarm efforts toward CIR in 2009 in order to be able to claim to the special interest groups that they made a sincere effort, only to be thwarted by the evil Republicans.
Posted by lance sjogren | February 18, 2008 2:35 PM
McCain is finished before he's even won the nomination. I've heard from countless conservatives, and only the wussies are going to pull the lever for that Napoleonic creep. It's third party time or no party. There ain't a bit of difference between the Obamanation and McAmnesty.
Posted by levotb | February 18, 2008 7:46 PM
It' funny if a American wants to bring someone into this Country they have to do it legally..
But they want to make People that came here Illegally a free ride... I guess Our Men are dying so that the world has more rights than Americans...
Posted by Larry Kegel | February 18, 2008 8:43 PM
Lynette, you are right not to vote for McCain.
If a Democrat is elected President, there will be no open-borders/amnesty (OBA) bill.
If McCain is elected President, there might be. He might be able to put together a coalition of liberal Democrats and Ted Kennedy Republicans (TKR's) strong enough to get an OBA through Congress.
The way to ensure that there is not an OBA bill is to see that a Democrat gets in the White House.
The other benefit of a McCain defeat is that it takes the wind out of the sails of those who have hijacked the Republican Party, so Republicans can take the party back and restore it as an organization that can provide a GENUINE choice compared to what the Democratic Party has to offer.
Posted by lance sjogren | February 19, 2008 2:11 AM
James Barends said:
"The conservatives KNOW they beat the bill in Congress and it will highlight the fact that they can contain McCain very well if they control the House of Representatives."
I agree an OBA bill couldn't win in the House as a standalone bill. However, the Senate could try the same stunt they tried in 2006, pass an amnesty bill and try to merge it with a House enforcement bill in conference, where Ted Kennedy and John Conyers would decide what was in the final bill. (i.e., it would be an amnesty bill) It might still be possible to defeat the conference bill in the final House vote, but there is a lot more pressure on members to sign off on bills once they've reached that stage.
Another wild card on this issue, however, is the economy.
You have to be one heck of an ideological fanatic to try to push through a bill to flood the country with workers at a time when we are entering a recession and unemployment is rising.
McCain is such an ideological fanatic, as are a number of other open-borders Republican Senators, and a few far-left Democratic Senators such as Kennedy and Durbin.
Most congressional Democrats, on the other hand, would tend to vote for open-borders legislation, but they aren't fanatics to the point where they will do so all the way to the gates of hell.
Posted by lance sjogren | February 19, 2008 2:19 AM
As a conservative Republican who supported a REAL conservative, Gov. Mitt Romney, I'm just sick to think that McAmnesty is the GOP choice...some choice. The lamestream media pushed from the get to to make McSlimy the "frontrunner" and did their best to ignore Mitt Romney even though he was winning or coming in a close second, until he "suspended" his campaign. Huckabee is a liar on immigration as well. Americans need to WAKE UP and do their own homework, stop being lazy and relying on the MAINSTREAM MEDIA to help them with their decision. Huckabee and McCain are the two MOST LIBERAL "GOP" candidates running for president and that's exactly why the media pushed them. And regarding Obama's "rock star" status..please. The guy is a great speaker and is very captivating, but is anyone really listening to anything other than the RHETORIC?!? He's an empty suit and is the MOST LIBERAL SENATOR IN THE SENATE! Clinton isn't much better, but I'd rather have her than Obama. He will ruin this country. McAmnesty had better pick a STRONG conservative (not milktoast Gov. Crist of FL either) or many of us will abstain from voting and suffer through four years of liberal hell, and it will only be four years if the Dem's are elected. It will be the Jimmy Carter era all over again. God help us!
Posted by April | February 19, 2008 2:59 PM
I will not vote for McCain, and I come from a long line of Republicans going back generations. But if the Dems want to hand over free citizenship to illegals, I will have no choice and no one to vote for. Clearly McCain is liar, and will pull a reversal just like GW a day or two after getting elected, and push for amnesty. My only hope is that if a Democrat is elected, they will not feel the pressure to sell out the country because they have more to lose from Blacks and the working and welfare poor who compete with illegals for jobs and handouts. I am voting for whichever Democrat they put up, hoping for gridlock on amnesty.
Posted by Tim D | February 19, 2008 3:04 PM
If amnesty happens, and it will, under McCain, 20 million illegals will be legalized and then, chain migration. We are looking at 100 million over the next several decades. And, no one in government gives a rip what this means to America, fiscally and in terms of supporting this many people with natural resources, food, water, etc... George Soros supports this--he hates America. John McCain supports this because their has never been a more narcissitic, self-important, self-agrandizing candidate running for the Presidency!
Posted by CJC | February 19, 2008 11:12 PM
Regarding John McCain and his Immigration Reform bill: I will never vote for him, especially since he still believes he would vote for the bill, saying it would never return.
I will never vote for John McCain, and I don't care if Elmer Fudd runs against him.He likes to brag about his 8th percentile Conservative rating. However, he's been in Congress a hundred years and all one has to do is look at his conservative rating the last few years. No thank you. If someone is going to stab me in the back, I'd rather not see it coming.
As for the poster who said MD voted out the incumbents because of illegal immigration. What a joke and bald-faced lie. The Maryland General Assembly is for all things illegal immigration. The former incumbent governor was certainly against driver's license for illegal and one of the reasons he was voted out. Maryland is going broke and raising taxes supoorting at least 50,000 illegal's education, health care, housing, WIC, welfare. Raise the taxes and bring in the slots are their answers.
Good luck with your "incumbents." HAH!
Posted by taja36 | February 20, 2008 12:12 AM
It's so easy to attack those who have no voice, as none here illigally can really stand up and present his/her case, but only those that want to do the right thing based on human values expressed in the Constitution and ideals of the forefathers of the nation (all men are equal...), and then they are called 'anti-americans'.
While it's true that the US cannot receive all the population of the world (and even if the borders were to be wide opened not everyone would want to come) expressing that more immigration brings economic havoc, deplenishing public services, could not be more far from the truth. All well educated people know this from their Economics class in college. Immigration brings economic growth. That's in theory. What about reality? Check what the people who have passed anti-immigration laws are saying now, quoting from visalaw.com, a lawfirm website:
"The exodus of immigrants has caused a sharp decline in both businesses and real estate in Tulsa and Oklahoma City . "I think we swung the pendulum too far; we?re hurting people, the immigrant families, and we?re going to hurt the economy," said Mike Means, executive vice president of the Oklahoma State Homebuilders Association. David Castillo, executive director of the Greater Oklahoma City Chamber of Commerce also notes the effect the migration has had on rental property, newly vacated by fleeing immigrants. "There?s been a tremendous impact in Oklahoma City ," Castillo said. "We?ve had several companies close shop and leave the state. Banks have called us and say they?re closing 30 accounts per week.""
Not to say that econimic hardship comes entirely from anti-immigration legislation, but it certainly is a factor in worsening economics in that region.
The antiimmigration sentiment is being fed by appealing to nationalistic sentiments, protectionism, hatred towards others, race supremacy, and similar feelings. All negative human traits. Just see who is mostly behind the propaganda, Lou Dobbs' type (just present one side of the story, twisting the data to present his case; needs to go through a periodism university), white supremay groups, who often resort to violence, (granted not all aniti-immigrants have this traits, but see who spearheads the anti-immigrant movement). The priciples behind the US constitution come nowhere near those sentiments, but rather from equality, fairness, just what makes this country great.
Sure, we don't want those who steal, kill, evade taxes. Deport them. But give those who are hardworking people, those who want to prosper and make their neighborhood a better place, a fair chance. Who cares what is called (amnesty? Check the dictionary by the way, if any legislation passes chances are it will contain some sort of punishment, which means is not amnesty. If you make them pay, in any way shape or form, is not forgiving, therefore not amnesty. Thats why we have jail terms for crime, criminals pay. If you were to give amnesty to someone who stole from a bank, you would forgive, don't make him pay, just let him walk away. Thats amnesty. With the immigration issue, any legislation likely to pass (yes, again) would make them pay some sort of fine, therefore, the definition would not apply) just do the right thing. That's the American way.
Posted by John Bennett | February 29, 2008 1:48 AM
Who's gonna pick the tomatoes?
Americans generally will not, and certainly they will not for the wages that some Mexicans will. We need these people who are willing to work in a free market without an artificially set "minimum wage." Thus, I favor a guest worker program.
Some time ago, pre-9/11, in a room full of immigration lawyers, I was the only one who voted for open borders. I even presented a preamble for the national organization that we should lobby for the day when we would no longer be needed. That got nowhere because, you see, immigration lawyers are on the side of immigrants only up to a point.
People and all life forms need to be able to migrate freely. That's why the border fence idea is so wrong in my opinion. Remember the Berlin Wall? They too rationalized it by saying they were keeping others out and not the reverse. Unfortunately, after 9/11, we need to monitor who's coming and going as much as possible, but that will never be perfect. European countries have no such fences now to my knowledge, but the best example is how the United States functions. Individual states each have their own laws, but we operate under federal law as well. Does that mean we will need a better functioning world government? I think the answer is yes.
Our social systems in the U.S. cannot handle vast numbers of participants though. So what's wrong with having American ID cards that would identify citizens? We already have drivers' licenses, social security cards, etc. I don't favor a "path to citizenship" (an unfortunate choice of words because many Americans feel there are too many "paths" here already.) Also, the immigrant community shot itself in the foot with demonstrations. At least one nonprofit agency lost its funding as a result. "Today we march, tomorrow we ........." (vote, riot--you fill in the blank.) Some whites were threatened by memories of civil rights riots, and some blacks may not have liked their legacy being usurped.
The 14th Amendment gave birthright citizenship to protect slaves. It should not be available to any woman who makes it here and drops a kid. An immigration lawyer in Florida says that many Mexican women sit in the parking lot at the best hospital until the kid is crowning, at which point it becomes a medical emergency and gains her admittance. So there are limitations. There should be freedom of movement but not free movement.
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providing immigration services worldwide for 25 years
Posted by doug holmes | March 5, 2008 8:31 PM