The voting hasn't begun, so it's time for some what-ifs.

Number one, what if Ron Paul beats a supposed top-tier candidate here in Iowa tonight? It will obviously be brutal for the politician who comes in lower, but does Paul get a second look from Republican primary voters? His strategy has been based on drawing disaffected voters in to take part in the process, but he can't win a Republican primary from them alone. A strong showing here, plus the giant campaign treasury he's amassed, put him in good shape to argue for another look.

As an aside, if Paul beats one of the five other major candidates, how can future debates justify leaving him out?

Number two, what if Mike Huckabee wins the Iowa caucuses and Sen. John McCain wins the New Hampshire primary? So far, they've been incredibly cordial to each other, mainly because they have a common foe in Mitt Romney right now. But if they have to go head-to-head as the front-runners after Jan. 8, who goes negative first? For that matter, After Huckabee's odd press conference earlier this week, can he ever go negative again?

Number three, how does McCain spin his finish here? If he's third, it means he topped Fred Thompson, who put in a major effort here. But if he's not third, can he still claim not to have cared much about Iowa, given his last-minute swing through here and his on-ground operation thanks to Sen. Sam Brownback, the former candidate who is now backing McCain? McCain yesterday told reporters it's up to them how to portray it.

— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times