Republicans who have been looking for the hole in Hillary Rodham Clinton's armor-plated campaign may have finally found it.

In last night's Democrat debate, Clinton walked into a trap on driver's licenses for illegal aliens.

She knew she'd been tripped, and immediately complained about her opponents playing "gotcha." But in politics, when you're complaining about gotcha, it's usually because somebody did get you, and good.

In this case, Clinton was on all sides of the question of whether illegal aliens should be given driver's licenses, making such a mess of her answer that all sides — her own Democratic colleagues as well as her potential Republican opponents — immediately called her on it.

Christopher Dodd, Barack Obama and John Edwards all said she was being inconsistent, the Republican National Committee had a full press release parsing her words within minutes, and Mitt Romney's campaign issued this statement: "Senator Clinton's troubling answer on providing drivers licenses to illegal immigrants was emblematic of someone who is both dismissive of efforts to enforce our nation's immigration laws and entirely unwilling to offer a straight answer to a very direct question."

However the rest of the immigration issue plays out — and that is anything but clear at this point, with each side risking overplaying its hand — the driver's licenses issue seems a clear-cut winner for the Republican candidates, who say licensing illegals is a step too far.

— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

Heading into tomorrow's committee vote on the Law of the Sea convention, all of the major Republican candidates have now taken a position against it.

Mike Huckabee was the first to make it an issue, having raised it repeatedly over the month of October and even inserting it into major speeches and in briefings with reporters. Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney followed suit, then John McCain, reversing his long-held position of support.

Rudy Giuliani completed the field today, issuing this statement:

"I oppose ratification of the Law of the Sea Treaty. I believe the treaty is well intentioned, and I appreciate the hard work of U.S. negotiators who sought to resolve problems in the treaty first identified by President Reagan. I also understand the arguments of those — particularly in our military — who claim that this treaty will enhance America's ability to guarantee freedom of the seas for all peace-loving nations.

"But I believe that the treaty is fundamentally flawed. I cannot support the creation of yet another unaccountable international bureaucracy that might infringe on American sovereignty and curtail America's freedoms. I oppose ratification of this treaty as long as it fails to address these concerns."

— Stephen Dinaan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

A new University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll says the Republican field for that state's caucuses boils down to Mitt Romney and everyone else.

Polling for caucuses is difficult, but these results are pretty easy to read. Romney holds a commanding lead, with 36 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers, almost equal to the next three combined. Those three — Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson — are all bunched together at between 11 percent and 13 percent.

Romney added 8 percentage points to his lead since the August Hawkeye Poll, while Huckabee appears to have maintained the bounce he received from August's Iowa Straw Poll.

Tom Tancredo has all but faded, dropping to 2 percent in the poll, while John McCain has made a slight comeback to reach 6 percent.

The most intriguing number, though, may be the "don't know" figure, which has dropped to less than 15 percent, down from 27 percent in August.

Among those still on the fence, two-thirds are weekly church-goers, suggesting there's room for a religious conservative to expand his vote even more.

Here's the poll's list of the percentage of voters in each party rated these issues as their top concern:

................................................Dem.......Rep
ABORTION.............................1.4.........7.2
AGRICULTURAL POLICY.....1.4.........1.4
ECONOMY............................15.8.......15.8
EDUCATION...........................6.7.........4.0
ENERGY POLICY...................2.4..........2.9
ENVIRONMENT/....................5.7..........1.1
GLOBAL WARMING
GAY MARRIAGE...................0.7..........2.9
HEALTH CARE....................23.2..........9.5
IMMIGRATION......................2.4........13.7
IRAQ WAR...........................34.9........15.5
TERRORISM..........................1.7........21.9

— Stephen Dinaan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

His campaign was unable to return calls for my story, but apparently Sen. John McCain has now flipped and will oppose the Law of the Sea Treaty.

It's quite a move for a guy who joined with some of the Senate's most liberal senators in 1998 in urging favorable consideration and who was actually scheduled to testify on behalf of the treaty in 2003, as then-Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar says in his opening statement from that hearing.

That leaves Giuliani as the only Republican candidate who hasn't taken a public position. His campaign didn't return repeated messages for my story.

— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

This gem from Associated Press' new poll on ghosts: By 31 percent to 18 percent, more liberals than conservatives report seeing a specter.

"It's because of the sheer number of failed programs that are coming back to haunt them," quipped one Senate Republican aide, explaining the high liberal number.

Some of the other findings, thankfully all of them nonpolitical:

* Three in 10 have awakened sensing a strange presence in the room. For whatever it says about matrimony, singles are more likely than married people to say so.

* 14 percent — mostly men and lower-income people — say they have seen a UFO.

* Spells and witchcraft are more readily believed by urban dwellers, minorities and lower-earning people.

* Those who find credibility in ESP are more likely to be better educated and white — 51 percent of college graduates compared to 37 percent with a high school diploma or less, about the same proportion by which white believers outnumber minorities.

— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

As a follow on yesterday's Dream Act vote tally, John McCain today told bloggers he opposed the measure, which would have legitimized illegal alien students.

McCain canceled his campaign schedule yesterday morning to be in the Senate for two votes on a judicial nomination. But he failed to stick around for a vote on the Dream Act, just minutes later.

Still, on a conference call with bloggers today he told them he opposed the bill, according to HumanEvents.

"I got the message, and the American people want the borders controlled first," he said.

— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

He's used his birthday to raise money. He's had his mother use his birthday to raise money.

Now John McCain is using the 40th anniversary of his being shot down in Vietnam to raise money.

In an e-mail to supporters, McCain's campaign has sent out a photo of McCain, a Navy pilot, in the water after being shot down in 1967.

"He has given so much — join me in giving him a gift of $50, $100, $250, $500, $1,000 or even $2,300 in remembrance of his past service to all of us and in support of a future McCain Presidency," Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, pleads in the e-mail.

John Kerry used his service in Vietnam as the backbone of his Iowa caucuses comeback in 2004, can McCain do the same thing this time around?

— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

After repeatedly refusing to change positions on issues dear to conservative Republicans, Rudy Giuliani may have made a monumental gaffe this week, when he — the former mayor of New York — told reporters he is rooting for the Boston Red Sox in this World Series.

Remember, this is a guy who slammed Hillary Rodham Clinton when she, a Chicago Cubs fan, announced she was also a Yankees fan — an announcement timed to her run for New York's Senate seat.

But if his conversion alone wasn't enough, now the New York Daily News has the evidence it's also a giant flip-flop. Just months ago, he told the Providence Journal he would never embrace the Sox, even if it meant winning the presidency.

"I'm a Yankee fan," Giuliani said then. "I always believe it's a sign of my being straight with people, about not wanting to fool them, that I was one of the first mayors to be willing to say I was a Yankee fan."

So does it matter? Probably not.

But given that Giuliani made pretty much the same pitch to religious conservatives this weekend — "we have many, many more areas of agreement and the one thing you can count on with me is I'll always be honest with you" — you can bet some of them are wondering what other principles are on the table.

— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

The Dream Act was blocked on a 52-44 vote today, falling eight votes short of the 60 needed to bring the bill to the Senate floor. While today's vote was technically on a "motion to proceed" — a parliamentary measure about bringing the bill to the floor — both sides knew this vote was the make-or-break vote on the bill.

Looking at the vote, several oddities stand out.

* Sen. John McCain ducked the vote, even though he was in the chamber minutes beforehand for another vote on a judicial nominee. Obviously it's a tough issue for McCain, who is running for president but has suffered by being identified with amnesty. But ducking this vote comes just days after he said assured conservatives he had seen the light on the issue. Today he missed a chance to prove that.

* Sen. Sam Brownback, after flipping on immigration during his presidential run, has now flopped back to where he was before, voting in favor of the Dream Act. This comes just weeks after he told the audience at one of the presidential debates he no longer supported special paths to citizenship for illegal aliens.

* Sen. Trent Lott, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate, surprised his colleagues by voting in favor of the bill. Hours later, some of his colleagues were surprised to hear of that vote, saying they had been led to believe he would vote against it. His vote puts him at odds with Sen. Mitch McConnell, Republicans' leader, who told his troops to oppose the bill because Democrats were trying to shut out Republicans' amendments.

* After opposing President Bush's broad bill earlier this year, Sen. Jim Webb supported the Dream Act, breaking with two other freshman Democrats from red states — Sens. Jon Tester and Claire McKaskill — who voted against it.

* Among the Democratic presidential candidates, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Barack Obama voted for the bill. Christopher Dodd missed the vote.

— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

With Mike Huckabee's presidential campaign surging, expect a renewed look at the former Arkansas governor's tenure, warts and all.

His record for tax increases has been well-examined by interest groups and reported by some press. But American Spectator has an in-depth piece and says there's a lot more to discover about Huckabee:

"If they only did a little homework, they would discover a guy with a thin skin, a nasty vindictive streak, and a long history of imbroglios about questionable ethics."

Here's the link to the piece.

— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

Ron Paul's campaign is making the argument the he alone among the Republican presidential field can defeat Hillary Rodham Clinton in next year's general election.

The Paul campaign points to a Rasmussen Reports poll taken Oct. 12-14 that shows their man leading Mrs. Clinton among voters ages 30-49. In that age group, they say, he leads her 47 percent to 44 percent.

"Ron Paul is the only Republican candidate who can beat Hillary Clinton," said campaign Chairman Kent Snyder.

But overall, Paul trails Clinton by 10 percent, and in the writeup of the the poll, Rasmussen has a different take on Paul's chances:

"The enthusiasm of supporters, his strength in GOP straw polls, and his surprising fundraising ability have yet to make him competitive in either GOP-nomination or general-election match-ups. In Iowa, Paul attracts just 2% of the vote and he has yet to top 3% in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll."

It's also not clear how those numbers show Paul is the ONLY candidate who can beat Clinton — the key part of the campaign's claim. Depending on the poll, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain run much closer than 10 points behind Clinton among all voters in a general election match-up.

The Paul campaign's argument is the 30-49 age group is a leading indicator. They say that's where President Bush cleaned up in the 2004 election against John Kerry, and say Paul is on the same track.

The campaign chairman told reporters last week they are on the rise and about to begin spending the campaign treasury they've been stocking for the past six months. If Paul is going to make a move in the polls, we will have to see evidence of it soon.

— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

Fred Thompson has just announced his own immigration plan today, and from the looks of it, he's the first major Republican candidate to realize that voters don't want amnesty or immediate mass deportations.

What they are willing to accept is attrition — lower the number of illegal aliens by going after those who shield them, give them jobs and give them the means to blend into society.

Here's the key paragraph:

"Attrition through Enforcement. Reduce the number of illegal aliens through increased enforcement against unauthorized alien workers and their employers. Without illegal employment opportunities available, fewer illegal aliens will attempt to enter the country, and many of those illegally in the country now likely will return home. Self-deportation can also be maximized by stepping up the enforcement levels of other existing immigration laws. This course of action offers a reasonable alternative to the false choices currently proposed to deal with the 12 million or more aliens already in the U.S. illegally: either arrest and deport them all, or give them all amnesty. Attrition through enforcement is a more reasonable and achievable solution, but this approach requires additional resources for enforcement and border security:"

— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

The GOP has less to fear from a Latino backlash than some claim, says Steven Malanga, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. In a new article, he says those who have warned of impending doom haven't looked very closely at the Hispanic electorate.

His argument is not that there's good news for Republicans, but rather that the news was bad even before the immigration debate (for daily news and updates on the issue, see our new Immigration Blog), and that the debate isn't likely to change the minds of many Hispanic voters for the worse.

That's partly because President Bush's success among Hispanic voters was exaggerated in 2004 (and besides, it was never clear his success would translate to the rest of the party anyway) and partly because Hispanic voters list plenty of other issues above immigration when asked what is most important to win their vote.

Immigration-rights groups aligned with Democrats say the difference is last year's mass marches, and this year's immigration bill. They say they have succeeded in focusing Hispanic voters' minds on immigration, and are also making headway in getting legal residents to become citizens and to register to vote.

Either way, it will be a year before we know for sure.

-- Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

The Republican National Committee has ruled that five states are in violation of the party's primary schedule and will lose half of their delegates to the 2008 presidential convention.

Officials in New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina, Michigan and Wyoming are planning to hold a binding primary before Feb. 5, the first day the RNC rules allows.

RNC Chairman Robert M. "Mike" Duncan just told reporters he will enforce the rules, adopted in 2004, that punish states that go out of order.

"The rules clearly state these states will lose half their delegates to the 2008 Republican convention," Duncan said.

Of course, few expect it to come to that. Even if the primaries go ahead as scheduled, as long as one candidate runs away with the nomination -- which has been the case for every recent contest -- the penalties will be meaningless.

And the eventual nominee will have a grand time granting amnesty to recalcitrant states by telling the convention he wants their delegates seated -- a request almost guaranteed to be granted.

Still, if it does come to a legal fight, Duncan said, the RNC will have precedent on its side.

Duncan said this is a preliminary finding and parties that devise new rules can resubmit their plans and gain approval.

"We always believe in redemption," he said.

Here is the very long and convoluted document the party adopted today.

-- Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

The most important results from this weekend's Values Voter Summit straw poll may be those for "anyone but."

Organizers asked voters to name the candidate "least acceptable" to be president.

Among the social conservatives here, Hillary Rodham Clinton was the most detested, receiving 77 percent of the vote for least acceptable.

Among the Republicans, Rudy Giuliani took top honors -- unsurprising given his position on abortion, which was listed as the top issue for nearly 60 percent of the voters here. His 34 anti-votes were more than those for John Edwards or even Dennis Kucinich, both liberal Democratic presidential candidates.

These numbers matter because the attendees at this event are the troops Republicans will count on to go door-to-door a year from now to ensure their neighbors are enthusiastic enough about the GOP nominee to turn out. It's what carried President Bush to re-election in 2004 and what many conservatives say was lacking last year when Republicans were spanked by Democrats.

Second among Republicans was Mitt Romney, with only half as many anti-votes as Giuliani. Given questions about his Mormonism among some evangelical conservatives, that should go down as an impressive showing for the former Massachusetts governor.

On the other end of the spectrum, Fred Thompson collected just five anti-votes, and Sen. John McCain collected only two. That could mean they are consensus picks, but it also could mean their campaigns are so inconsequential to the voters here that they didn't merit the animosity.

-- Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

Rudy Giuliani this morning told religious conservatives gathered here in Washington he shares their goal of "a country without abortions."

In a very frank appeal to the Values Voter Summit, Giuliani talked openly about his Catholic upbringing and schooling, saying the first time he attended a class that didn't begin with a prayer was law school at New York University.

"I was so confused, I began by making the sign of the cross, then looked around and realized people were staring at me," he said. "It helped my development, a lot."

He repeatedly called Christianity a forgiving and inclusive religion, and offered himself as someone who frequently acknowledges his shortcomings but is at least honest about them.

"If we're honest with each other, trust will follow," he said. "I'll give you reason to trust me, and you'll always know where I stand."

Unlike many other Republican candidates who spoke before him, he did not call for overturning Roe v. Wade, the 1973 Supreme Court decision that found a constitutional right to abortions. But he said his record in New York proves he can lower the number of abortions and raise the number of adoptions nationwide.

He also argued he's a candidate who has shown he can make progress in many other areas these voters care about, such as driving pornography theaters out of New York's Times Square.

The gathering here is really about social conservatives trying to settle on the anti-Giuliani — the best candidate to stop him from getting the nomination. But Giuliani made a valiant effort. And his task today was not to win their votes in the primary, but to begin the general election work of making sure these voters are comfortable enough with him that they don't flee the Republican Party if he wins the nomination.

"You have absolutely nothing to fear from me," he assured them. "I find it difficult those who try to make me out as an activist for liberal causes. If you think that, just read any New York Times editorial while I was mayor of New York City."

-- Stephen Dinan, national political correspondent, The Washington Times

Sam Brownback may have saved his best political speech for the day he ends his presidential campaign.

The Kansas senator dropped all of the trappings of a campaign speech today to deliver a direct challenge to the Family Research Council Action's Washington Briefing 2007: Values Voter Summit: "God has laid on our hearts two great things -- the end of abortion and the renewing of American culture."

He has called a press conference this afternoon in Topeka, where, the Associated Press reports, he will drop out of the presidential race.

Brownback's campaign never took off, partially because he had to broaden his portfolio of positions, which forced him into months of flip-flopping on issues such as immigration and trying to stake out a position on the Iraq war.

But this morning, all of those other issues were gone, and his message had been boiled back down to what conservatives had expected out of his candidacy: an unapologetic appeal to Christian conservatives to make the pro-life cause the central part of their mission.

Obviously that played beautifully with the audience here -- and was even better in comparison to Sen. John McCain's performance just minutes before.

To an audience desperate for a rallying cry on social issues, McCain led with a call for spending cuts and spent the majority of his time talking about Iraq and the war against radical Islam.

He impressed the audience with stories of patriotism and heroism he saw as a prisoner of war in Vietnam, and his most direct appeal was on his pro-life record: "That is a personal testament, which you need not take on faith. You need only examine my public record to know that I won't change my position," he said.

But McCain glossed over his opposition to a constitutional amendment defining marriage -- a position that infuriates many of the social conservatives here -- and didn't mention his support for spending federal money to expand embryonic stem-cell research, in defiance of President Bush's position.

-- Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

There's too much money in politics, and the problem, it turns out, is the Supreme Court.

That's the argument four senators are making today as they introduce a constitutional amendment to undo the court's rulings on campaign finances. The two Republicans and two Democrats say that by equating campaign donations and spending with free speech, the court has ruined both.

Democratic Sens. Charles E. Schumer and Tom Harkin and Republican Sens. Thad Cochran and Arlen Specter say they want control back in the hands of the people they trust most -- themselves and their colleagues in Congress.

This comes five years after they overhauled the entire system and voted for the McCain-Feingold law, which was supposed to have cleaned things up.

But the senators say court rulings have punched holes in McCain-Feingold, and say special interests and wealthy candidates have exposed the loopholes.

Their amendment would overturn several Supreme Court precedents and make it clear that Congress can impose more regulations on campaigns.

-- Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

Ron Paul has been stockpiling his campaign cash, and his campaign says he's now in such a good financial situation that he should be considered one of the top contenders for the Republican presidential nomination.

Looking at the new campaign finance numbers filed this week, and dating to Sept. 30, Mr. Paul has $5.4 million available to spend on the primaries.

That puts him behind only Rudy Giuliani, who has $11.4 million after debts are included, Fred Thompson, who has $6.4 million, and Mitt Romney, who has $9.2 million, after having loaned his campaign more than $17 million of his own money.

"Beyond those four candidates, there really appears to be no one else in the field who has the financial resources to make a reasonable run at the Republican nomination," said Jonathan Bydlak, Mr. Paul's fundraising director.

The campaign held a press conference today to drive home their point that they deserve higher-tier status, taking particular aim at Sen. John McCain, whose campaign they called "effectively bankrupt," with just $1.67 million in cash available for the primary but $1.73 million listed in debt.

— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

Fred Thompson today said his major break with conservatives over the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform, which he supported and most conservatives vehemently opposed, was a result of the Clintons.

"What happened was the Clintons," he told the Club for Growth, saying he was reacting to the phenomenal success of Bill Clinton and his then-adviser Dick Morris, who perfected the formula for raising "soft money" to help Democrats compete with Republicans in the 1990s.

Mr. Thompson was one of the major proponents of the new rules but now calls that "a mistake," though he still defends the concept of banning parties from raising soft money. He says the rules, written in large part by one of his Republican rivals, Sen. John McCain, have gone too far in limiting interest groups.

Speaking to the same group earlier in the day, Rudy Giuliani also said he regretted his support for the McCain-Feingold rules, saying instead of limits the system should promote transparency.

-- Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

One of the daily political tip sheets, NBC's First Read, has all but declared the Arizona senator toast, based on McCain's campaign having dipped into the red in the new Federal Election Commission reports.

McCain has $1.67 million cash on hand available for the primary, but reported to the FEC yesterday a debt of $1.73 million.

My colleague, Ralph Z. Hallow, first reported last month on how serious the problems were at the McCain campaign and how disappointing the FEC figures would be. The question now is: Does McCain survive long enough to collect a federal bailout of his campaign through matching funds, or does he fold before that?

On the other hand, with Rep. Ron Paul reporting more than $5 million raised in the last quarter and more than $5 million cash on hand, will reporters reassess how they see his campaign and elevate him to higher-tier status?

— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

Count Rudy Giuliani among those opposed to New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer's plan to allow illegal aliens to obtain state driver's licenses.

"Governor Spitzer should not give licenses to illegals," Giuliani told the Republican Jewish Coalition this morning. "It doesn't make sense."

The former New York mayor also said, though, that Spitzer is facing a problem he shouldn't have to deal with — hundreds of thousands of illegal aliens, who are the responsibility of the federal government.

Giuliani and other top Republican candidates spoke to the RJC this morning, and even before this audience, with its focus on international issues, immigration continues to dominate the presidential primary, popping up in the questions to each of the three candidates who spoke this morning.

— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

UPDATE 2:30 p.m.:

The issue arose because employees in the clerk's office were scrutinizing documents closely and some were refusing to issue marriage certificates to those who presented expired visitor visas as identity documents. Giuliani told reporters the issue was identity, not legal status.

--SD

Sen. John McCain this morning announced he will show up for Univision's Spanish-language Republican presidential forum in Miami in December. The question is, will anyone else?

Univision had planned a September debate but only McCain committed to showing up at that one, causing the nation's largest Spanish-language broadcaster to indefinitely postpone the forum. Univision didn't return a call or an e-mail message yet this morning asking about details, while the University of Miami, which was scheduled to host the debate, had no comment.

All of the top-tier Republicans avoided a debate aimed at black voters and held at Morgan State University in Baltimore last month, and coupled with the Univision snub it's producing mounds of bad press from columnists arguing the GOP is showing a racially insensitive streak. The top Democrats, for their part, have attended debates aimed at both Hispanic and black voters, as well as one sponsored by gay-rights groups.

But the Morgan State debate, which repeatedly featured questions accusing Republicans of failing blacks, showed the downside of these tailored debates for the GOP. And it's also the case that black voters make up very little of the Republican primary electorate — and that's who the candidates are trying to win right now.

Whoever the eventual Republican nominee is will get some sort of a do-over with both black and Hispanic voters in the general election, and that will be when we should judge the party's minority outreach.

— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

Mitt Romney appears to have escaped from what could have been a major embarrassment after New Hampshire's attorney general concluded a former aide did not do anything wrong in stopping a newspaper reporter who was following Romney's campaign around the state in May.

A New York Times reporter started the row when he wrote in an article that a Romney aide — who he didn't identify, but who has since been identified as Jay Garrity — made him drive to the road shoulder, told him to "veer off" from following the campaign SUV and told him they "ran your license plate." That would have been a violation of state law.

But in a letter closing the case, the chief of the attorney general's criminal justice bureau said the reporter, Mark Leibovich, refused to cooperate in the investigation. The office also said it found no evidence anyone ran a check on Leibovich's license plates.

Garrity has since resigned as director of operations for the Romney campaign.

He worked worked for Romney during the latter's single term as governor of Massachusetts, and has also been accused of impersonating a state police trooper in that state by making a phone call.

But in a statement yesterday, Garrity's lawyers said that, too, is likely to be cleared up.

"In Massachusetts a voice analysis shows unequivocally that Jay did not make the call to Wayne's Drains in which a man claimed to be 'Trooper Garrity,' and the call was made from a telephone which has no connection whatsoever to Jay Garrity," the statement said. "That information was provided to the Suffolk County district attorney's office."

— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times

With spending and taxes roiling the Republican presidential field, the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette weighs in today with its own devastating look at the tax burden under former Gov. Mike Huckabee's 10 years in office.

According to the paper, the average Arkansan's tax burden went from $1,969 in the fiscal year that ended June 30, 1997, to $2,902 for the fiscal year that ended June 30, 2005, or a nearly 50 percent increase. Now that includes both state and local tax increases, but the record is still pretty stark — Huckabee oversaw a giant increase in the tax burden paid by the average resident.

Huckabee has consistently said he was a tax-cutter as well as a tax-raiser, claiming 90 different instances of tax cuts during his tenure. He also has become the most enthusiastic acolyte of the Fair Tax, a national sales tax proposal that has captured the support of many Republican voters in critical primary locations such as Iowa.

Given the Republican Party's ties to a message of lower spending and tax cuts, it's not surprising Huckabee feels he has to try to muddy the waters on his record at least a bit. But that leaves him in the middle of a distracting back-and-forth.

If anyone in the party can sell the big-government conservative message that President Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress lived by over the past six years, it would be Huckabee. The question is whether he will try.

— Stephen Dinan, national political reporter, The Washington Times