There's still a few more first-round goodies to get to before the NCAA lacrosse tournament starts, but what's a postseason without some picks that will inevitably be pilloried in the weeks to come.
This doesn't seem like a year to expect many surprises at the top. A Duke-Virginia-Syracuse-Hopkins final four would not be stunning, and a Duke-over-Virginia final --- in a very tight game --- is the pick here.
But first up is the round of 16, where everyone is looking for a chic upset pick. Trouble is, it probably won't be easy to find.
SATURDAY
No. 7 Maryland vs. Denver: Everyone wants to say the Pioneers don't belong in the tournament, and it very well might be true that they wouldn't beat Georgetown on a neutral field. But Denver did a great job of playing the RPI/strength of schedule game, and benefited from early wins (Colgate and Brown) that looked better than anyone would have guessed.
The Pioneers play a brand of organized chaos, but one pattern tends to stand out over the years: They don't like leaving the Mountain time zone.
Denver is 29-5 in Colorado over the last four years. Elsewhere, they are a measly 11-18.
In 2006, when both Denver and Maryland were better (and paired together), the Pioneers were 10-0 in Colorado and 2-4 elsewhere entering the tournament. The Terrapins drubbed them 16-8.
This year, Denver is 8-0 at altitude and 2-6 everywhere else. One of those wins was on a neutral field against Notre Dame, but don't bet on the Pioneers adding to the total.
Pick: Maryland 12, Denver 8
No. 1 Duke vs. Loyola: This does not look pleasant on paper. The Blue Devils won a regular season meeting 21-8 in Baltimore, and this will be the final final home game for the likes of Matt Danowski and his fellow fifth-year seniors. Loyola, which can be a bit erratic, should make it closer. But that won't stop Duke from cruising.
Pick: Duke 18, Loyola 9
No. 8 Cornell vs. Ohio State: You know what sort of team you might want to avoid picking? One that scored just two goals against anyone its last time out, especially a team that was busy demolishing the weaker sisters on its schedule in the middle of the season. The Buckeyes seemed a shade underrated for much of the season, and while Cornell is no juggernaut in 2008, the Big Red should have just enough to survive and earn a spot in the quarterfinals for the fourth time in five years.
Pick: Cornell 10, Ohio State 8
No. 4 North Carolina vs. Navy: On paper, the Tar Heels should have this one under control in Chapel Hill. But neither team has played in more than two weeks, and it's anyone's guess how that will play out. Chances are, Carolina will be fine if Grant Zimmerman gets hot and the rash of penalties incurred in the second half of the ACC semifinal loss to Duke can be avoided.
And here's a Betcha-didn't-know stat: Between Washington College, Johns Hopkins and North Carolina, John Haus-coached teams are 7-0 in their NCAA tournament openers.
Pick: North Carolina 11, Navy 9
SUNDAY
No. 6 Notre Dame vs. Colgate: It's nice to know the quarterfinal field will include at least one team that isn't a usual suspect. And in some ways, this is the most curious first round game of them all.
The computer numbers place Notre Dame's body of work in a favorable light. But the Irish is only 3-2 against teams in the tournament field and it's hard to really decipher how good they are.
No one would be surprised if Ohio State and Denver were bounced on the opening day. If Notre Dame joins them on the sideline so quickly, the howls and protests from Selection Sunday will echo into the second weekend of the tournament.
And if I was looking for an upset, this is where I'd begin to zero in, with a torrid team fresh off a victory over Syracuse making the trip to Indiana.
Pick: Colgate 11, Notre Dame 10 (OT)
No. 5 Johns Hopkins vs. Hofstra: There are lots of lacrosse traditions at Hopkins. One of them for nearly two decades has been not losing the final game of the season at Homewood Field, even if it comes in the NCAA tournament.
The Blue Jays last dropped a home finale in 1991, when Syracuse poached a quarterfinal victory in Tony Seaman's first season. Since then, the Hop has won home tournament games in 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 (twice), 2006 and 2007. That's 13 straight postseason victories at home.
So, sure, Hofstra nabbed Hopkins in lousy weather on Long Island early in the season. Lightning isn't going to strike twice, even if Seth Tierney has shown his head coaching chops in his second season with the CAA champion Pride.
Pick: Hopkins 11, Hofstra 7
No. 2 Virginia vs. UMBC: Retrievers fans don't want to hear about how their team's computer numbers weren't all that great --- not as good as Denver's, by the way. They look at their No. 5 ranking and wonder just why they got sent down to Charlottesville.
It probably would have been more fair to ship UMBC to North Carolina. But here's a reality: Attackman Ryan Smith (team-high 29 goals) tore up his knee last weekend, and that no doubt will mean something to the Doggies' offense. My guess is it won't be good, even if they performed a miracle by rallying past Albany in the America East final.
Don Zimmerman will juggle the parts at his disposal as deftly as anyone could. But he's also going to have to deal with a Virginia attack of Ben Rubeor, Danny Glading and Garrett Billings that had the luxury of two weeks to finally get a bit healthier.
The Cavaliers should look as good as they have at any point since late March. And that does not bode well for the Retrievers.
Pick: Virginia 15, UMBC 10
No. 3 Syracuse vs. Canisius: Well, congrats go out to the Golden Griffins for making their first tournament appearance. But here's a little history lesson on what it means to be the Metro Atlantic's representative in the postseason.
In 2002, Georgetown beat MAAC champ Manhattan 12-7. (The Hoyas also outshot the Jaspers 62-17).
In 2003, Virginia beat MAAC champion Mount St. Mary's 19-8.
In 2004, Johns Hopkins beat MAAC champion Providence 15-3.
In 2005, Johns Hopkins beat MAAC champion Marist 22-6.
In 2006, Hofstra beat MAAC champion Providence 14-8.
In 2007, Duke beat MAAC champion Providence 18-3.
On average, the MAAC champion has been outscored by nearly 11 goals.
This is not to rip on the MAAC. It's just to say Canisius will be the lacrosse equivalent of what Mississippi Valley State or Portland State were in the men's basketball tournament in March, and will not be enjoying an extended stay in the tournament.
Pick: Syracuse 16, Canisius 6
--- Patrick Stevens
