Everything seems so cut and dried coming into the weekend to me. But on Thursday afternoon, Virginia coach Dom Starsia warned me that anyone who really thought they knew how everything would play out was bluffing.

As if anyone needed a clarification, the insightful, sagacious Ivy Leaguer is going to be right more often than not. And he certainly was this time.

The Saturday of surprises has shuffled up everything outside of the top seven seeds, which remained relatively stable this weekend. But everything else is in flux, and it's anyone's guess who earns the final three at-large berths.

Here's mine --- for now, anyway. I'll sleep on all this and try to give it one last shot tomorrow.

It is surely a season the committee has a difficult task.

(1) Duke vs. ECAC/Loyola

* No one is rooting for VMI more than the Greyhounds. There could be an intriguing trickle down if the Keydets make the tournament --- perhaps VMI paired with Duke, Loyola shipped to Virginia, Navy paired with North Carolina and UMBC paired with Syracuse and Navy sent to Syracuse.

(8) GWLL/Notre Dame vs. Denver

* Can this matchup happen, since the teams are in the same league? Maybe not. But Denver edges out Georgetown, Brown and Princeton for the final at-large berth simply because the Pioneers have done nothing egregiously bad and have a decent schedule strength.

(5) Johns Hopkins vs. CAA/Hofstra

* If the seeds held in this bracket, the Blue Jays would have a chance to chase a title and pursue a vengeance tour at the same time. Hofstra, North Carolina and Duke all dealt the Hop losses, as did the two best teams in the bottom half of the draw (Virginia and Syracuse).

(4) North Carolina vs. AMERICA EAST/UMBC

* The Retrievers did well last year when it drew an ACC team that passed the computer test better than the eyeball test. This could be another upset opportunity for a team that needed a pair of highwire acts to survive the America East tournament.

(3) Syracuse vs. MAAC/Canisius

* The Orange cost themselves a shot at the No. 2 seed today, but it doesn't really matter that much. It probably set up an upstate New York quadrant of the bracket.

(6) IVY/Cornell vs. PATRIOT/Colgate

* The Raiders have a case for the final seeded spot in the field. At the least, it won't be an easy opener for the Ivy League champion Big Red, which locked up an AQ when Princeton lost at Brown.

(7) Maryland vs. Ohio State

* The Terrapins' offense finally started clicking today, dropping 16 on Yale to secure the team's best output since basketball's Selection Sunday. Maryland would need some scoring punch against the Buckeyes, who have suffered three of their four losses in overtime.

(2) Virginia vs. Navy

* Navy managed not to lose on a bye week, which ultimately meant the Midshipmen were big-time winners. Victories over Ohio State, Maryland and Colgate all look a bit better, and the Mids' solid RPI and strength of schedule didn't take hits this weekend.

--- Patrick Stevens