It was only a month ago that the first preseason basketball rankings for 2008-09 popped up. Heck, there was one here.
Well, there have been plenty of revisions. And such is the case here as well thanks to early entrants to the NBA Draft.
Every team is treated as if their players in the draft won't be returning, so it will be worth coming out with another set of rankings in late June once the deadline to remain in the draft has passed. There are some teams that got shuffled up because they were overlooked a month ago (Oklahoma, and to a lesser extent Marquette, UNLV and Wake Forest). Guys who could theoretically return are in parentheses.
1. Connecticut. Assuming A.J. Price is healthy, the Huskies could be in very, very good shape.
2. Pittsburgh. OK, had the Panthers a tick underrated before. They'll fall back toward the middle of the top 10 as players return to school, but they'll still be formidable with Sam Young back.
3. North Carolina (Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green): Yep, the Tar Heels are this high even with three of their top six players in the draft. Getting Tyler Hansbrough will do that.
4. Louisville: Hey, look, another Big East team. Derrick Caracter won't be back, but that's probably for the best. Earl Clark's decision to remain makes placing the Cardinals in the top five last month looks more credible.
5. Texas (A.J. Abrams): The Longhorns won't be No. 1 without D.J. Augustin. But they still have a lot of superb pieces to remain a top-10 team.
6. UCLA (Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, Josh Shipp, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute): The Bruins' recruiting class is good enough to land them back in contention for another Final Four trip.
7. Purdue: Scott Martin has transferred out, but the Boilermakers should still be the Big Ten's top team.
8. Duke: The Blue Devils stay where they were a month ago. And this should be about where they start next season.
9. Notre Dame: Much like Duke, the Fighting Irish should be very, very good last year (EDIT thanks to a careful reader: Next year, too. Oops!). Not sure if they can be Final Four good, but it's tough to envision them as anything but a tough out even after they fall a bit with players coming back to school.
10. Tennessee: Does Bobby Maze solve the point guard questions? Who knows. But the Volunteers are still in decent shape to pace the SEC.
11. Kansas (Mario Chalmers, Darrell Arthur)
12. Michigan State
13. Ohio State (Kosta Koufos)
14. Villanova
15. Florida (Marreese Speights)
16. Memphis (Antonio Anderson, Robert Dozier)
17. Georgetown
18. Davidson
19. West Virginia (Joe Alexander)
20. Wisconsin
21. Gonzaga (Jeremy Pargo)
22. Miami
23. San Diego
24. Oklahoma
25. Arizona State
26. Southern California
27. Syracuse (Donte Greene)
28. Xavier
29. Kentucky
30. Virginia Tech
31. UNLV
32. Clemson
33. Baylor
34. Marquette (Jerel McNeal)
35. Wake Forest
--- Patrick Stevens
Comments (4)
"The Fighting Irish should be very, very good last year"? Freudian slip there Patrick?
Posted by Jenny | May 9, 2008 12:01 PM
Good call, Jenny. It's been duly noted above.
On the bright side, at least no one can say I'm always wrong. Indeed, Notre Dame was very, very good last year. And should be again in 2008-09.
Posted by Patrick Stevens | May 9, 2008 3:35 PM
Patrick,
For the record, Marquette return its topfour scorers from last season in Dominic James, Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews, and Lazar Hayward.
Three of those four earned second-team all-Big East honors.
MU will also have Trevor Mbakwe healthy following surgery last season that forced him to miss 24 games and play at reduced capcity the 11 he did play. He is a much better athlete, rebounder, defender than Ousmane Barro, whom he will likely replace as the starting 5.
The former Warriors also return their two top back-court reserves in Maurice Acker and David Cubillan.
In hort, they return seven of their top nine players from a team that finished 117 in conference play and barely missed going to the Sweet 16 on a last-second prayer by Brook Lopez.
They lost out on two excellent recruits, but second-team juco all-American Jopseph Fulce is long (7'0" wing span), talented, and versatle. He was second in the country among jucos in rebounding at 13.2 rpg. That's pretty impressive, especialy for the league he payed in.
How can a team returning its four best players and arguably six of its top seven players drop from a Top 20 team to #34, especially since the only real cotibutor n o longer around averaged just under 20 mpg?
Sorry, Patrick, but you're way off base on this one.
Posted by Eric Silver | May 9, 2008 4:52 PM
Eric,
Thanks for the comment. I actually was kicking myself for leaving them out entirely last month. That was just short-sighted.
You very well may be right, and McNeal's likely return is worth a few spots, probably up to No. 29 or No. 30.
Three points on Marquette that I have in my mind at this juncture.
* What sort of impact will the coaching change have? I don't doubt Buzz Williams knows what he's doing, and it probably isn't a steep fall-off from Tom Crean. But will there be a step back in that aspect?
* Somebody is going to get burned by the fact the Big East is loaded next year --- you know, besides South Florida, Rutgers, St. John's, etc. I'm pretty sure it won't be Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame or Louisville (a team I really like after seeing them in the East regional). If Joe Alexander is back, it probably won't be West Virginia. So someone out of the scrum of Villanova, Georgetown, Marquette and Syracuse has to finish ninth or worse and lose eight or nine league games plus in all probability a Big East tournament game in the process.
Marquette probably will be better than in 2007-08. But who else in the top half of the league besides Georgetown won't be? The Golden Eagles could improve and still manage to go .500 in the conference --- and see their overall profile slightly diminished in the process.
* Marquette was a team that generally produced results you expected them to produce. They held serve at home except against the very best teams and occasionally nabbed a decent road win (Wisconsin, which was still finding itself in early December, and Villanova). And yes, the Golden Eagles gave Stanford a fine run in the second round and would have won if not for a ridiculous finish to overtime.
I still think it's fair to wonder how much better they'll really be, even with (or maybe even because of) the same returning cast. I had Marquette at No. 24 on my final AP ballot of the season (compiled on Selection Sunday before the brackets came out). Chances are, I'll have them within a few spots of that at the start of next year, too. It's encouraging they reliably beat up who they should beat up on --- 19-1 against teams with RPIs of 51+ last regular season, 19-3 in 2006-07. I'm just not sure they'll be much better against elite programs than a year ago (4-8 against the top 50 before the tournament).
Posted by Patrick Stevens | May 9, 2008 6:38 PM