It's a great question, one I don't feel comfortable trying to fully answer until I get a good look at the Blue Jays tomorrow at Homewood Field.

You can point to goalie play, which has been undeniably spotty this year.

You can point to bad luck, which is tough to ignore with three overtime losses (and is perhaps a regression to the mean for a program with an absurd 30-6 record in one-goal games between 2001 and 2007).

You can point to a merciless schedule, as tomorrow's game against Maryland ends the Blue Jays' annual ACC swing --- which is bookended by games against Syracuse and Navy.

You can point to the reality only two other Division I schools have avoided a losing season in the last 10 years (Maryland and Georgetown) and assert the cycle that nabbed Virginia and Duke in 2004, Princeton in 2005 and Syracuse in 2007 is going to get the Blue Jays this year.

It is true Hopkins has lost five in a row for the first time since 1964-65. It is also true that Hop is talented enough that it could win its last five games and roll into the postseason as a seeded team.

The Blue Jays have five losses, and four can be accounted for easily enough. Lots of teams are getting run off the field by Duke, and overtime setbacks to Virginia and Syracuse aren't fun but certainly indicate a team that isn't too far from the sport's elite.

Some folks I've talked to in the game cast a weary eye at Hopkins' overtime loss in the rain to a so-so Hofstra team as a sign for concern. But the weather played a role that day, and few teams will be as prepared for the Blue Jays as Hofstra --- which is coached by former Hopkins assistant Seth Tierney.

To me, the 13-8 whipping North Carolina administered two weeks ago at Homewood is much more startling.

One, because the Tar Heels started fast and didn't slow down for a while.

Two, Carolina was coming off getting trounced by Duke and Maryland the previous two weekends (with a victory over winless Marist tossed in) and certainly didn't seem imposing beyond a goalie who had just been shredded a couple times.

Three, Hopkins just doesn't lose by five goals at home every day --- just once this decade (2006 against Maryland in the Joe Walters Game).

I don't think Maryland will control things tomorrow like it did that night two years ago. And without Travis Reed in play, the Terps' offense will struggle much as it did against Navy last week.

But that doesn't mean Maryland can't win --- nor that all these questions about Hopkins will dissipate even with a victory over the Terps.

--- Patrick Stevens