It was really easy to figure out a premature top five after last year's Final Four for the next season.

This time around, not so much.

There's lots of teams that could be good. Trouble is, nearly all of them have a player or two who might or might not bolt for the pros.

This is all very subject to change. There isn't a core set of a teams you can just pluck a national champion from. I'd have taken North Carolina, Kansas, UCLA, Memphis and Georgetown and given the field at this time last year and felt reasonably good about my chances of having a winner 80 percent of the time.

This is a much more fluid situation. But here's an early 10 top anyway (with an additional 25 that merit some mention but not a detailed analysis):

1. North Carolina: The Tar Heels would like Wayne Ellington to come back, prefer Ty Lawson return and need Tyler Hansbrough in Chapel Hill to have a legitimate claim to this spot. But only one senior is gone (Quentin Thomas) and plenty of help is on the way. Now, about using those timeouts...

2. Texas: The Longhorns won 31 games with a roster lacking contributing seniors. If D.J. Augustin comes back, Rick Barnes could get the chance to join Bill Self in erasing his name from the list of guys who couldn't win the big one. Knock the Longhorns down a few spots if Augustin bolts, but even then it still has the makings of a top-10 team.

3. UCLA: Kevin Love is as good as gone, and the only significant senior loss is Lorenzo Mata-Real. Maybe some combination of Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook leaves early. If one of them comes back, they'll have plenty of help from a sweet recruiting class to bolster a program that has reached three straight Final Fours with a defense-first approach.

4. Connecticut: There's a lot to like about the Huskies despite their opening-round loss to San Diego, notably the likely return of a healthy A.J. Price. Losing shot-swatter Hasheem Thabeet would hurt, but most of this balanced team will be back for another shot at a tournament run.

5. Louisville: Despite the departures of Derrick Caracter (knucklehead) and Earl Clark (really could have used one more year), the Cardinals will be knocking on the Final Four door next year. They will rely heavily on freshmen in the frontcourt, but the top three guards as well as swingman Terrence Williams (who plans to test the NBA waters this spring) should return. Probably won't be as hyped next year, and losing David Padgett will hurt. But this isn't a team that should be ranked around 20th at this juncture.

6. Kansas: Don't forget about these guys. They do lose four seniors and almost certainly Brandon Rush from their top nine, and Darrell Arthur's performance Monday night likely made him a very wealthy young man. But assuming Mario Chalmers and Sherron Collins come back, the backcourt is in place for a good team. And Bill Self does know a thing or two about recruiting. Back-to-back titles? Don't bet on it. Back-to-back Final Fours? That's doable.

7. Purdue: The Boilermakers arrived a year early, but their young core is made up of the sort of players who will stick around for at least three years. Gene Keady never made a Final Four, but his protege Matt Painter might be able to get there with a roster constructed for long-term success.

8. Duke: First, a caveat. I don't think Duke will be one of the eight most talented teams in the country. But the Blue Devils still won 28 games and will lose only DeMarcus Nelson (the sort of nice college player Duke specializes in churning out) and Taylor King (the sort of well-regarded high school player who quickly transfers that Duke also specializes in churning out). A No. 2 or No. 3 seed next March seems about right, assuming Kyle Singler comes back to man the middle.

9. Tennessee: The Volunteers should plummet if Tyler Smith bolts for the NBA. Chris Lofton is gone and point guard questions remain. But it should be pretty well understood by now that Bruce Pearl has a decent idea what he's doing, and the SEC isn't exactly the scariest neighborhood to be working in these days.

10. West Virginia: Bob Huggins gets some of the credit for this, but the Mountaineers were arcing upwards even before John Beilein departed for Michigan. Joe Alexander took a backseat to no one not named Mario Chalmers, Derrick Rose, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Kevin Love and Stephen Curry among the stars of March, and that's saying something for a guy who only played three NCAA tournament games. He could play many more if he sticks around Morgantown for another year.

11. Notre Dame
12. Michigan State
13. Ohio State
14. Memphis (Rose and CDR will probably depart, but Calipari will cope)
15. Florida
16. Pittsburgh
17. Georgetown
18. Gonzaga
19. Villanova
20. Davidson
21. Southern California (VERY subject to change)
22. Wisconsin
23. Syracuse (another team that could fall depending on defections)
24. Miami
25. San Diego (everyone's back, and the Toreros' March was no fluke)
26. Kentucky
27. Xavier (the world should know better than to ignore these guys)
28. Virginia Tech
29. Texas A&M
30. Clemson
31. UAB (assuming Robert Vaden returns)
32. Arizona State
33. Baylor
34. Washington State
35. Oklahoma State (Bill Self rumors make the Pokes even more intriguing)

--- Patrick Stevens