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Revisiting the preseason ACC picks


Who says sportswriters don't have accountability?


I dredged up the projected records for the dozen teams in the ACC today. And needless to say, it was a far from perfect exercise.


Some of the picks were fairly spot on. Others (N.C. State, Virginia and Virginia Tech), not so much.


So here's a then-and-now, in the preseason order of predicted finish.


North Carolina


Prediction: 27-4, 13-3 ACC
Actual: 29-2, 14-2 ACC
Looking back: This was pretty much on target. The Tar Heels didn't wind up playing Louisville in Las Vegas back in November, and there weren't as many really good teams in the league as expected.


N.C. State


Prediction: 22-8, 10-6 ACC
Actual: 15-15, 4-12 ACC
Looking back: Oops. Things didn't go well in Raleigh. There were point guard issues, the frontcourt didn't mesh as well as it should have and the season ended in a tailspin. This is a cautionary tale for reading too much into surprising runs the previous March.


Duke


Prediction: 22-8, 10-6 ACC
Actual: 26-4, 13-3 ACC
Looking back: Didn't give Coach K his due, which is really dumb. Probably should have set the Blue Devils at least at 11-5. Some of their success also gets credited to a weaker than expected middle of the pack.


Virginia


Prediction: 19-10, 9-7 ACC
Actual: 15-14, 5-11 ACC
Looking back: OK, so Sean Singletary couldn't carry a team with spotty-to-nonexistent frontcourt on his own. Lesson learned. The Cavaliers' freshmen struggled mightily in January, and that is the reason for much of the discrepancy.


Maryland


Prediction: 22-9, 9-7 ACC
Actual: 18-13, 8-8 ACC
Looking back: The nonconference losses to American and Ohio account for half the difference. The rest? Pick your poison. Inconsistency all over the place and an inability to effectively close out games cost the Terps at least four games -- if not more.


Clemson


Prediction: 20-10, 8-8 ACC
Actual: 22-8, 10-6 ACC
Looking back: The anticipated free throws problems weren't as costly, and the non-Duke-and-UNC portion of the league didn't poach the Tigers as much as expected. Basically, to invoke Dennis Green, Clemson was who we thought they were.


Boston College


Prediction: 17-12, 8-8 ACC
Actual: 13-16, 4-12 ACC
Looking back: I expected BC to get better as the season progressed, in part because of Al Skinner on the sideline. The Eagles did not, losing 12 of their last 13. I'll take solace in projecting their nonconference record (9-4) on the button.


Georgia Tech


Prediction: 17-13, 8-8 ACC
Actual: 14-16, 7-9 ACC
Looking back: Didn't think the Yellow Jackets would lose to UNC Greensboro or depleted Georgia. This was almost a reverse Boston College -- a good idea of how a team would be late, but not quite accurate early on.


Miami


Prediction: 16-14, 6-10 ACC
Actual: 21-9, 8-8 ACC
Looking back: I'd feel bad, but nearly everyone else was further off in the preseason. A lot of the Hurricanes' young, athletic players improved greatly from last season to this year. Point guard questions weren't as glaring as anticipated, either.


Florida State


Prediction: 16-15, 5-11 ACC
Actual: 18-13, 7-9 ACC
Looking back: Another perfect nonconference projection. The Seminoles were probably a team that benefited from the middle of the pack not being so great. It's not a bad record for the year after Al Thornton left.


Virginia Tech


Prediction: 15-15, 5-11 ACC
Actual: 18-12, 9-7 ACC
Looking back: These guys fulfilled the uneven preseason expectations, and could have slipped into a rut after getting run off the floor at North Carolina last month. Instead, the Hokies won four straight and managed to create hope of an NCAA berth.


Wake Forest


Prediction: 14-15, 5-11 ACC
Actual: 17-12, 7-9 ACC
Looking back: There wasn't a stupid nonconference loss for a young team, and both James Johnson and Jeff Teague wound up even better than expected. If you're going to be wrong, it as well be while guessing incorrectly about freshmen.


--- Patrick Stevens

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