Maybe the best way to avoid a knee-jerk reaction to anything - good or bad - is to be prepared for a lot of scenarios to play out.
That isn't always easy, but if every outcome is placed on a continuum of 1 to 100, it's usually possible to prepare for most of the stuff in the middle. But the possibilities on the fringe - say, the extreme bad (1-10) and extreme good (91-100) - aren't worth obsessing over. The anxiety is hardly worth it for such a rare event.
Well, for Maryland, that rare event happened last night. You don't have a plan on how to cope with giving up a 20-point lead in the final 11 minutes in a game against a borderline top-25 team. You just don't.
As they said on Monty Python, "Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition."
Objectively, the at-large field is still so weak that Maryland can plausibly overcome its 73-70 loss to Clemson (capped by an 18-2 meltdown in the final five minutes) and still reach the tournament.
But this isn't a standard fare loss to Duke or a road bludgeoning at Miami or even a surrendered lead to Virginia Tech. This was far worse, a sure victory and a cushion for the tournament snatched away in just a few minutes. This will linger, and won't soon be forgotten.
There is a tendency on the part of sportswriters to overanalyze the psychological implications of a given event. Most are mundane or common enough for players and coaches to have something in their mental store of experiences to be able to cope with what is thrown at them.
This one, not so much.
The only collapses in recent memory in the neighborhood of last night's were the twin losses to Duke in 2001. Maryland was zombie-like in the two-plus weeks after the Gone in 54 Seconds game before reversing course and reaching the Final Four. Once there, the Terps lost a 22-point lead to the Blue Devils and were sent home to dwell on an unfulfilled season; they proceeded to win the national title the next season.
No one's thinking that big right now.
Coach Gary Williams quickly admitted he and everyone else would discover what his team was made of when it visits Virginia on Sunday. Thirty games into a 31-game season, and no one really knows the answer to that question.
It's befuddling. It's frustrating. And above all, it's not a situation you can entirely prepare for if you're the Terps.
Then again, nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition.
--- Patrick Stevens
Comments (2)
Quick question about the Terps NCAA chances. Let's say they get the win next week and Va Tech drops their last two so Md. finishes fourth and gets the first round buy.
A lot of people are saying that the Terps need next week's win and an ACC Tourney win, but would a buy ensure it also? Because if not, wouldn't it almost be better for Maryland to finish fifth and play the 12th seed (potentially Va.) and get the win, rather than taking their chances as a four seed against the fifth?
Posted by TerpsFan | March 3, 2008 9:19 PM
That's an excellent question, one I'd feel a bit more comfortable answering in a couple days after just about everyone's played another game. But you're quite right --- the victory chase theoretically becomes easier facing the league's last-place team instead of the No. 4 seed.
(One other thing to keep in mind is that Miami can still finish 9-7, and would hold a tiebreaker advantage over Maryland as well. The Terps could easily wind up as the No. 6 seed, which is a nightmare scenario for a reporter stuck covering one or two games at 9:30 p.m.)
The flip side of drawing the No. 5 seed is that a loss to No. 12 would be simply fatal. Given the horrid state of the at-large field, a 1-1 finish with a loss to a No. 4 seed (Miami?) might be just enough. It shouldn't, probably won't be and in most years would not be nearly what was needed to earn an at-large berth.
Posted by Patrick Stevens | March 3, 2008 10:12 PM