Nearly four weeks ago, there was a reminder here that late January was far too early to legitimately gauge most teams' NCAA tournament chances.

Well, mid-to-late February works a little better.

That's simply because there are fewer variables in play. There's fewer games left, more teams that have absolutely no chance to make it beyond winning a conference tournament and with 80 percent of the season in the books, a much more accurate picture of what teams really are.

And as of now, Maryland (17-9, 7-4 ACC) looks like a tournament team. In filling out yesterday's bracket, the Terps were roughly the No. 23 at-large team in the field. That leaves some wiggle room, but there is still work to do.

How much? Here's a look at the scenarios:

* Four more victories (for a total of 21) would probably lock Maryland into the field. That could be a 4-1 finish with a first-game loss in the ACC tournament, or a 3-2 finish with a split in Charlotte.

* Three more victories (20 total) should be enough, though it's no guarantee. As Jerry Palm of collegerpi.com reminded me last week, no team exists in a vacuum. Crazy stuff can happen in conference tournaments. A 3-3 (or 3-4) finish doesn't offer much inspiration. And even if Maryland finished 9-7 in the conference, that's far from a perfectly sound position. The wonders of unbalanced schedules ensure that doesn't mean what it once did.

* Two more victories (19 total) creates a very unenviable position. Dropping four of six or five of seven would hint at a team fading badly, and could knock Maryland out of the bracket altogether.

* Zero or one more victory (17-18 total): Questions about a collapse will outnumber the fans picking up NIT tickets.

In short, three more wins probably does it. Four is enough to overcome nearly any unusual set of variables and definitively punch a ticket.

--- Patrick Stevens