In a departure from the brief, friendly feelings from last night's JJ Dinner in North Carolina, Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign is out with a new memo setting expectations for Tuesday's contest in Indiana.
To: Interested PartiesFrom: The Clinton Campaign
Date: May 3, 2008
RE: Why Did the Obama Campaign Predict Victory in Indiana? Does That Prediction Still Stand?
Three months ago the Obama campaign produced a spreadsheet that, with one exception, has accurately predicted the winners in each of the upcoming primaries and caucuses.
Tellingly, that spreadsheet predicted an Obama victory in Indiana by 7 points, as well as an Obama victory in North Carolina.
Does the Obama campaign still stand by that prediction? If not, why not, and what has happened?
It is easy to see why the Obama campaign predicted victory in Indiana. Senator Obama has won each of the primaries in the states that border Illinois - Iowa, Wisconsin, and Missouri, and 25% of Hoosiers get their television from Illinois stations - a huge advantage for Senator Obama. Indiana's primary is open, and Senator Obama has tended to do better in those contests.
The Obama campaign has also dramatically outspent Senator Clinton in Indiana by more than $2.4 million -- $5.6m - $3.2m and has even gone up on broadcast television in the very expensive Chicago media market.
Despite Senator Obama's advantages and his prediction of victory, we have worked hard in Indiana to do as well as we can and anticipate a close finish.
In North Carolina, Tuesday's other contest, Senator Obama enjoyed a lead of over 20 points in public polls throughout this year and outspent us there on TV by $1.3m -- $4.9 - $3.5. Senator Clinton has been working hard to narrow that 20 point gap.
The Clinton campaign is closing on the big challenges and questions facing American families - who is on your side and who is best able to fight for working and middle class people on Day One in the White House?
Three hours after the Clinton camp sent that memo, Team Obama sent out a note directing reporters to the campaign's "results center," and outlining "The Math."
The MathContests - Obama 30, Clinton 15 (Guam pending)
Total Delegates - Obama 1747, Clinton 1608
Pledged delegates Obama needs for a majority - 134
Total delegates Obama needs for the nomination - 277
— Christina Bellantoni, national political reporter, The Washington Times
Comments (22)
It is worth noting that the primary in NC and IN and ultimately the election hinge on a bet by two of the candidates that low information voters will believe their preposterous assertions that a "gas tax holiday" will help them pay their fuel bills this summer.
Anyone with a high school level education in economics will tell you a gas tax holiday will actually have the effect of raising gasoline prices. The consumer will simply never see a dime and the oil companies will make even higher profits. Not to mention the fact that it might put as many as 300.000 people out of work when the country is reeling from job losses or drive our debt even higher.
It is simply impossible to even suggest that such a measure could be introduced much less pass through congress before the end of the summer given nobody but McCain and Clinton support it in congress.
We are witnessing an epic and historic clash of old and new politics, one rooted in pander and deception of the past and one with the promise of truth and transparency.
My vote is for Senator Obama
Posted by Deward Bowles | May 3, 2008 6:00 PM
The numbers don't lie. The Clintons lie, but the numbers don't. Obama 08
Posted by Mike | May 3, 2008 6:10 PM
Hillary Clinton asks good questions, such as:
Who is on your side?
Obama, by telling the truth, is on the side of the American people. Hillary, by saying what some people want to hear - like her gas tax cut - is betting that lesser educated blue collar workers can't figure out it does nothing for them. Sure, it sounds good, until you realize it gets most working folks less then 50 cents a day and gas prices will just go up to cover the difference. Here is what I want to say to Hillary Clinton: Most of us are lesser educated then you,GIRL - BUT WE AIN'T DUMB!
Hillary also asks who is best able to fight for working and middle class people.
The answer is that we need someone who has the courage to tell us what maybe we don't want to hear. Starting with the truth is the best way to fight for us. We need Obama.
Hillary needs lesser educated blue collar workers to buy into her story line - a lot will - but enough of us will see through her and vote for a change. We need Obama. We need him NOW!
Posted by Patrick Dague | May 3, 2008 6:29 PM
The comments made by the persons above confirm the arrogance that comes from the Obama supporters and the Obama camp. This is what has gotten them in real trouble and will be their downfall IF they are to get the nomination. Keep telling people that they are stupid if they don't vote for you and the one that is going to end up stupidly is yourself.
Posted by lilia | May 3, 2008 6:48 PM
Great analysis, Deward. The problem is that undereducated voters won't understand it. They've been dumbed down for years without realizing what's happening. Instead, convenient sound bites being repetitiously looped on the ratings-obsessed networks will sink into the uneducated minds of these voters and they will simply think "Hillary = Gas Tax Savings, Obama = Osama."
They're like robots and it's too bad none of them will understand your accurate comments.
VOTE OBAMA 08
Posted by Mick Gee | May 3, 2008 6:48 PM
obama should give it up now. There is no way on earth he can win the general election. The Reverend Wright controversy will do to him what the SwiftBoaters attack did to Kerry. I used to support Obama but have switched to Clinton. I'll vote for that old geezer McCain if obama is the democratic nominee.
Posted by Pixie | May 3, 2008 6:51 PM
Perhaps a little help with the exorbitant price of gas means nothing to those who can absorb $4.00 per gallon gasoline. But working-class families know that the gas tax is among the most regressive of all federal taxes. Gas is a commodity that working-class families can't go without. They have to get to work, no matter what the fuel costs.
And Senator Clinton has suggested paying for the whole thing with a windfall profits tax on the oil industry...which means that Deward Bowles' argument that the oil companies will pocket the tax rebate is simply wrong. Clinton is smart enough to know that a windfall profits tax plus a gas tax holiday is one way to introduce progressivity into a system that hurts low-income Americans the most.
Those aren't lies. Those are real solutions that real Americans desperately need.
Posted by Chris | May 3, 2008 6:53 PM
Clinton lost Guam even though she tried to scam them by claiming she would get them the right to vote in the general election, something not even Puerto Rico gets, even though they have 20 million people and actually turn out to vote.
She will say anything to win. But she has lost Guam.
Obama won with 52.7% and also his slate of superdelegates won a three slate race, with 48%, giving him a committed super vice-chairman. Clinton's slate did not win a committed delegate.
Posted by bruce becker | May 3, 2008 7:10 PM
Hilliary and her camp keep on mixing and mincing the numbers to try and make it look like she'll be the nominee. I believe the majority of citizens and states have spoken loudly and clearly we want Senator Obama to be our nominee and our President and Commander-in-Chief.
Speaking of Commander-and-Chief: Hilliary has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt she is NOT fit to be CIC of our Military/Armed Forces. How did she prove this? When she spit the 4000+ and counting servicemen and servicewomen who paid the ultimate price fighting the war in Iraq that Hilliary helped propel. She spit on these brave men and women who sacrificed their lives when she BLATANTLY AND KNOWINGLY LIED, not once, but several times, that "we landed under sniper fire in Bosnia, had to put our heads down, and run to our cars. She further spit on these lost lives when she went on the Jay Leno Show and JOKED AND LAUGHED "BECAUSE I RAN INTO SNIPER FIRE"! Hilliary also spit in the faces of every serviceman and servicewoman serving our country in Iraq and Afganistan, as well as those who gave their lives and served their country in ALL wars, past and present!! I am sure the families of ALL these servicemen and servicewomen are insulted by Hilliary's deliberate lies about landing under sniper fire and further insulting them and entire nation by JOKING and LAUGHING about running into sniper fire!!! Why didn't the MEDIA call her on this???? Surely a candidate who spits on our troops, dead and alive, and then follows up by laughing and joking about it is very damaging to our forces!! She has put our military forces in further danger in Iraq & Afganistan by stating that IF Iran CONSIDERED attacking Israel, then, she, as President would be able to OBLITERATE Iran. I realize she is trying desperately to show she is "a fighter", however, her statement and threat are careless and definitely put our men and women in further harm's way. By making such a careless statement, she also invited more 9/11s on American soil! (Our enemies will definitely use the "We'll get them before they get us" reasoning!
Hilliary has also proven she cannot run a decent campaign (infighting, shakeups, selecting people of her own kind of thinking and ilk) and by not being able to handle her donors' contributions and donations wisely. Pizza and doughnuts anyone?? She has failed to pay the middle-class vendors who provided her and her campaign with needed services---these are the very people she claims that she cares so much about!!! Then she refuses to pay them on a timely basis??? Absolutely dispicable!! Maybe they should turn her over to a collection agency in order to get their well-earned and well-deserved payment. What a disgrace Hilliary is to the Democrat Party, The Unites States of America, and its citizens!! We do not need such a calloused and inept person as our leader, period!!
NO MORE CLINTONS IN THE WHITE HOUSE!!
Posted by NinaK | May 3, 2008 7:28 PM
Obama won by 7 votes in Guam lol, pretty much a tie. For a candidate who has been doing so great in caucuses...this seems like a downfall for him. If you seriously think he's still electable, keep dreaming. He's losing white supports, and has never gotten much Hispanic nor Asian votes.
Posted by Sammie | May 3, 2008 7:50 PM
I am a Republican who switched to Democrat to vote for Barack Obama. I have voted every presidential election since Richard Nixon for a Republican. Barack Obama inspires me. The Clinton/ Bush Imperial families of America depress me. If Barack is the Democratic nominee, I will vote for and work for his election. If Clinton is in, I go back to the Republicans and work tirelessly for the McCain candidacy. I am a white, blue collar, 52 year old man from Pennsylvania, and I am not fooled by the more of the same, win at all costs, dirty-tricking Billary machine whose best strategy is pandering and always playing victim. Wake up Middle America, they are not one of us; Barack is and he gives us hope for a different Washington.
Posted by Rick Christie | May 3, 2008 8:24 PM
They just call it a guam caucus but it is actually held primary style
As hillary would say "a win is a win"
Thats the only true thing shes actually ever said...
Anything else is just whatever is convenient or will appeal to uneducated people like herself. she appeals to them because she thinks like them
"I promise to save u 30 cents a day"
"I have better judgement because I voted for the war and i know wut its like in war after my time in bosnia"
There hasnt been a person whose last name is bush or clinton in the white house for 20 years. Its no wonder this country is falling apart selling its soul for cheap chinese products.
VOTE OBAMA
Posted by Warren | May 3, 2008 8:34 PM
The media blackout on the illegal robo calls being placed by Women's Voice Women Vote in North Carolina is reason for great concern.
People if you haven't seen or read about this please check it out (google it). This group's board is stacked w/ Clinton operatives & they've been doing their damndest to mislead AA voters in North Carolina. Spread the word & Get Out The Vote Big time for Obama. It's the only hope we have of winning our Country back!!! Peace.
Posted by Chapman | May 3, 2008 9:38 PM
Vote for Obama. The Weatherman Bill Ayers will bedome Secretary of the United States Department of Education. American children will be taught his concepts of civil disobedience--including bombing the Pentagon.
Posted by Anonymous | May 3, 2008 9:50 PM
obama should give it up now. There is no way on earth he can win the general election. The Reverend Wright controversy will do to him what the SwiftBoaters attack did to Kerry. I used to support Obama but have switched to Clinton. I'll vote for that old geezer McCain if obama is the democratic nominee.
Posted by Pixie | May 3, 2008 6:51 PM
--------------------------------------------
Pixie, what do you think the Republican Swift Boaters will do to Hillary? Need we dwell on the unpleasantness of the past two years of the Clinton Presidency when Bill was caught lying and was disbarred by the Supreme Court and the State of Arkansas? And Hillary called it all a vast right wing conspiracy! That still sticks in the craw of many Americans. And don't kid yourself. Bill is running for a third term! It's your right to vote for whomever you please, but remember that a vote for John McCain will be a vote for at least four more years of the disastrous policies of George W. Bush.
You say that Obama should give it up now. That is a patently ridiculous statement considering he is ahead in pledged delegates, states won, AND the popular vote! Hillary's chance of catching him in any of those categories is a mathematical improbability at best. You've switched to Clinton and you're supporting the loser.
Posted by lhummer | May 3, 2008 9:55 PM
Some legitimate questions about Bill Ayers include whether Senator Obama will nominate someone with his views as Secretary of Education. Mayor Daley vouches for Ayers as a constructive force for improving Chicago schools. What does Senator Obama think about Mr. Ayer's educational philosophy--somewhat radical but very empowering for students-- and what does he think about Mr. Ayers views on civil disobedience.
Posted by EdFairness | May 3, 2008 9:59 PM
Hillary said it best. "A WIN IS A WIN!"
GO OBAMA!
Posted by Larry Oregon | May 3, 2008 10:00 PM
I HATE HILLARY! STOP SAYING LIES ..... IF SHE'S THE NOMINATOR I WILL VOTE FOR MAGIN.....
Posted by Nelcy T | May 3, 2008 10:06 PM
The Clintons are the Borgias of American politics. By refusing to back out when it was obviously over and continuing to attack Barack Obama with every dirty trick they could think of, the Clintons have effectively handed the election to the Republicans. Hillary Clinton is a fighter, but she's not fighting for you or for me, only for herself. She has already destroyed the Democrat's chances in the fall. If the elction doesn't go Hillary's way, Obama needs to sleep with a light on.
Posted by Jeff A. | May 3, 2008 10:18 PM
Bush - mccain and clinton are responsible for 4060 american service man death nearly 40,000 injured and 200,000 Iraqi civilan death and nearly thee million homeless.
when she casted her vote , she did not even buther to spend two hours to read the intelegence report . how could we allow such irresponsible people occupy white house.
Posted by asori | May 3, 2008 10:19 PM
sammie, come on. we all know clinton should have quit long ago. reason being, the majority of americans are tired of living in an oligarchy. we need someone with a different last name. someone that is not a mouthpiece for bush (mccain). this country needs change. whether it be a third party, or a radical candidate, america needs something different. obama is completely electable. i, as a moderate who has voted both democrat and republican, can attest to that. i need a president with a different last name to help defeat the 150+ years of oligarchy.
p.s. thank you for the well put contribution, rick christie.
Posted by james bliss | May 3, 2008 10:29 PM
I have spoken with members of Obama's Chicago and Washington Senate staff. I can testify that I did not notice any change in the way that they conducted business.
The difference between the candidates is mainly a matter of who they will owe favors to in exchange for them having been given money.
Posted by John from Illinois | May 3, 2008 11:22 PM