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Three things to consider about tonight


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Voters in Harrisburg complained this morning about an advertising sticker that ended up plastered over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's face on the front page of the Patriot-News.


The newspaper editors explain here they have no control over the stickers, which are applied automatically on the printing press.


After you check out the two absolutely amazing photo galleries by divas Astrid Riecken with Obama and Allison Shelley with Clinton, here are a few things to ponder as we sit around and wait for results tonight.


THE CROWDS
Sen. Barack Obama seems to always draw a crowd, even when the campaign tries to manage the numbers and keep them small for town halls. Last night in Pittsburgh, more than 10,000 stuck around until nearly midnight to hear from Obama, who did not keep his speech short. The crowd didn't seem to mind the long night, and were on their feet hollering more than a dozen times. Here's some video I shot of his introduction:





My colleague S.A. Miller has been with the Clinton camp the last few days, and he tells me her biggest crowd was about 7,000 in Philadelphia last night (paling in comparison with his 35,000-person rally there Friday). She's gotten excited cheers from voters, and has attracted some younger Democrats to events held at colleges.



ORGANIZATION
Clinton volunteers were out in droves all week, filling up hotel rooms across the state and knocking on doors. The campaign organized trips from D.C. and New York into Pennsylvania and had surrogates do "visibilities" at Obama rallies, while supporters from across the country were urged to make phone calls into the Keystone State.


Both Democrats have sent text messages to their supporters today. Here's what showed up on my phone:

One voice can make a difference. Make that voice yours! Fwd this msg and make sure all your friends vote today for Barack
People who love their counrtry can change it. Make sure all your friends vote today for Barack! Polls open in PA until 8 a.m. Please fwd msg.
Hillary needs your help today! You can help Hillary win PA by calling key voters right now! To get started simply reply YES - Thank you!


Obama's voter contact director also sent a note to supporters asking them to log in and make 20 calls into Pennsylvania.


EXPECTATIONS
Finally, Team Obama and Team Clinton are out with competing memo explaining what the results might mean.


TO: Interested Parties

FR: Obama Campaign

RE: The Bar for Clinton in Pennsylvania and Beyond

DA: April 22, 2008

______________________________________________________________________________

The Bar for Clinton in Pennsylvania

With all eyes on today's contest, one thing is clear: Pennsylvania is considered a state tailor-made for Hillary Clinton, and by rights she should win big. She has family roots in the state, she has the support of the Democratic establishment — including Gov. Rendell's extensive network — and former President Clinton is fondly remembered.

Clinton has been leading by large margins in Pennsylvania. In the weeks leading up to the primary, she led by as much as 25 points. They were so confident that their own Pennsylvania spokesman said Clinton would be "unbeatable" in Pennsylvania —regardless of spending by her opponent. [Washington Post, 3/7/08]

But as he has done in every state, Obama campaigned hard and tapped into the hunger for change at grassroots, looking to pick up as many delegates as possible. Old-fashioned, shoe-leather campaigning, in the face of unrelenting negative attacks from Clinton, substantially closed a once-formidable gap.

There has been much speculation about what each campaign needs coming out of tonight. The facts, however, are simple.

Behind in delegates and sporting a 14-30 primary record (not good enough even to make the playoffs in the NBA Eastern Conference), the Clinton campaign needs a blowout victory in Pennsylvania to get any closer to winning the nomination. Even former President Clinton said that only a "big, big victory" will give her the boost she needs.

The Philadelphia Inquirer observed that there is "consensus" that Clinton has to "take the state big, perhaps by double digits, to be able to claim that she'd won it a way that matters in the overall nomination struggle — given her deficits in both the delegate race and the overall popular vote." [Philadelphia Inquirer, 4/3/08]

That's exactly right. And Clinton's own supporters have been predicting big wins. Gov. Ed Rendell and Congressman Jack Murtha — no strangers to Pennsylvania politics — have both predicted runaway wins for her. [MTP, 4/6/08, MSNBC, 4/1/08]

The Clinton campaign has been trying to spin away their earlier confidence and move the goal posts for victory in Pennsylvania. But the bottom line is that if Clinton is going to make meaningful inroads in this race for delegates, she will need a huge margin in Pennsylvania.

The Race Beyond Tonight

Tonight's outcome is unlikely to change the dynamic of this lengthy primary. Fully three-quarters of the remaining delegates will be selected in states other than Pennsylvania. While there are 158 delegates at stake in today's primary, there are 157 up for grabs in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries two weeks from today. We expect that by tomorrow morning, the overall structure of the race will remain unchanged — except for the fact that there will be 158 delegates off the table.

It wouldn't be surprising if the Clinton campaign once again tries to change the metrics by which the race is measured. They used to stress repeatedly that, in Howard Wolfson’s words "[t]his is a race for delegates." [Washington Post, 1/16/08] Recently, they have attempted to shift the focus to the popular vote, and the specious argument that primary wins in big states equate to electoral vote pickups in the general election. They do not.

Our strategy has always been to gain as many delegates as possible — an important point to remember going forward. If this race had focused on the popular vote, we would have campaigned non-stop in California, for example, and run up our numbers even higher in Obama's home state of Illinois. But we focused on delegates because, simply, delegates decide the Democratic nominee.

But even if we were to judge the primary on the popular vote, we anticipate having a comfortable lead when voting in the last nine contests wraps up in June. Obama will continue to gain strength with Democratic superdelegates. He will maintain his position as the best candidate to take on Sen. John McCain. And he will be ready to unite the American people and begin a new chapter in our history.

We are already organizing vigorously in the remaining contests, opening local offices, canvassing, and engaging voters in this unprecedented campaign. We will have the financial resources we need to be competitive. Our message will be the same one that Obama enunciated 14 months ago and has shared with voters every day since: that the size of the challenges we face has outgrown the smallness of our politics, and this election is our chance to change that.



To: Interested Parties

From: The Clinton Campaign

Date: April 22, 2008

MEMO: Watch What They Do Not What They Say

The Obama campaign is attempting to pre-spin the results from tonight's
Pennsylvania primary by suggesting that Clinton should — and will —
win.

But after the Obama campaign's "go-for-broke" Pennsylvania strategy,
after their avalanche of negative ads, negative mailers and negative
attacks against Clinton, after their record-breaking spending in
the state, a fundamental question must be asked: Why shouldn't
OBAMA win?

Obama's supporters — and many pundits — have argued that the
delegate "math" makes him the prohibitive frontrunner. They have argued
that Clinton's chances are slim to none. So if he's already the
frontrunner, if he's had six weeks of unlimited resources to get his
message out, shouldn't he be the one expected to win tonight? If not,
why not?

As the phrase goes, watch what they do not what they say.

There's a reason Obama and his campaign have ratcheted up their
year-long assault on Clinton's character and ended the Pennsylvania
campaign with a flurry of harsh negative attacks. It's because they know
that a loss in Pennsylvania will raise troubling questions about his
candidacy and his ability to take on McCain in the general
election. And it's because they know that the race is neck and neck and
tonight's contest is a measure of where the campaign stands.

The reality is this: both candidates need a combination of pledged and
super delegates to secure the nomination — and either candidate can
reach the required number. The press and the pundits have repeatedly
counted Clinton out and she has repeatedly proved them wrong. The
vote in the bellwether state of Pennsylvania is another head to head
measure of the two candidates and of the coalition they will put
together to compete and win in November.

No amount of spin from the Obama campaign will change that — nor will it
explain away anything less than a victory by Obama.




Christina Bellantoni, national political reporter, The Washington Times

Comments (1)

Because I am a patriotic American if HRC wins the Democratic nomination, I will campaign and vote for McCain.
Here's why.
The Clintons have taken $15 million (w/ ano 20 on account) from the Emir of Dubai. This occured while HRC sat in the US Senate. Dubai is a repressive antiSemitic anti Israel oligarchy and no friend of the US. Nor does the Emir give away money out of the goodness of his heart. He owns the Clintons. This is not influence peddling. It's treason.

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