NBC has released an excerpt from its interview with Barack and Michelle Obama.
MEREDITH VIEIRA: Michelle, do you feel that the Reverend Wright betrayed your husband?
MICHELLE OBAMA: I think Barack has spoken so clearly and eloquently about this.
MEREDITH VIEIRA: But do you personally feel that the Reverend Wright...
MICHELLE OBAMA: You know what I think Meredith? I think we gotta move forward. You know, this conversation doesn't help my kids. You know, it doesn't help kids out there who are looking for us to make decisions and choices about how we're going to better fund education.
The full interview airs tomorrow at 7 a.m.
The Obama campaign released video of the Obamas meeting with Indiana families today, including a segment where the First Lady hopeful talks about the balancing act of being a working mother.
"Those stresses tend to eat up families," she said.
Also: "Work isn't a choice. It never felt like a choice to me."
INDIANAPOLIS — It's the superdelegate shuffle today, as both Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama are rolling out new endorsements at a fast pace.
At last count Obama had three new ones today — Rep. Baron Hill of Indiana, Rep. Lois Capps of California and Rep. Bruce Braley of Iowa — and Clinton had 2 — Puerto Rico's Luisette Cabanas and Pennsylvania AFL-CIO president Bill George. She still leads Obama by 15-20 superdelegates.
Polls here are mixed, showing the Democrats basically tied before Tuesday's primary. Plenty of Obama ads are up on TV, though not at the blanketed level we saw in Pennsylvania. Both candidates are in the Hoosier State today to meet as many voters as possible.
I have a story in today's paper about Clinton's appearance before the Indy Star's editorial board yesterday.
INDIANAPOLIS — Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton said yesterday she had "no concern at all" that her ongoing battle with Sen. Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination would inflict lasting harm on her party.
Mrs. Clinton of New York predicted Democrats would "unite behind our nominee" to run a "vigorous and successful" campaign against presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain. She further promised she would "shout that from the mountaintops" after June 3 when the nominee is decided, even if it's not her.
"I have pledged that I will do whatever I can to bring our party back together and to make that case no matter who our nominee is," she told editors during a meeting with the editorial board of the Indianapolis Star newspaper.
She brushed aside polls taken the day she won Pennsylvania's primary that indicated nearly a quarter of Democrats would defect to the Republican Party should their chosen Democratic candidate not win the nomination.
Mrs. Clinton called that mentality the "height of political foolishness to have voted for one of us and what we stand for," and then to stay home or vote for Mr. McCain, Arizona Republican.
INDIANAPOLIS — The Rachael Ray interview with Barack and Michelle Obama aired today, and it's really more of a Michelle Obama profile than anything else.
Ray is quite enthusiastic in the clip, during which she gives the First Lady hopeful a high-five and learns the couple danced to "Unforgettable" at their wedding. There's also some nice, soft b-roll footage of the Obama family hanging out on a down day. (No date on the footage, but it does not look recent.)
She gave no endorsement, but gushed when meeting the Democratic candidate, "It is such an exciting wonderful time to be an American and I think that your campaign has really created this great wave, this great fervor and it just must be so exciting for you."
INDIANAPOLIS — This is not something you see every day.
At the airport this morning I noticed that both Democratic candidates appear on the covers of this week's supermarket tabloids under trumped up headlines.
I've read both stories, and both are so ridiculous and lacking sources I won't even bother to summarize them here. But the tabloids have wide readership, and the Enquirer reaches more than 1 million people.
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton this morning won the backing of North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley, and she's just announced another big superdelegate.
Rep. Ike Skelton, a well-respected Democrat from Missouri who is chairman of the House Armed Services committee, endorsed the former first lady.
Sen. Barack Obama narrowly won Missouri on Super Tuesday, but Clinton won 61 percent of the vote in Skelton's district, in western Missouri and comprising much of the Kansas City suburbs.
Skelton's endorsement comes a month after another powerful one from Pennsylvania Rep. Jack Murtha, Defense Appropriations Subcommittee chairman.
Here's Skelton's release:
Harrisonville, MO - Today, U.S. Representative Ike Skelton released the following statement regarding the Democratic Presidential contest:
"It is my intention as a delegate to the Democratic National Convention to vote for Senator Hillary Clinton because of her support in rural America, her commitment to National Security, and her dedication to our men and women in uniform."
INDIANAPOLIS — Sen. Barack Obama said today he is angry that his former pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright took it upon himself to "command the stage" for the pastfewdays.
Obama told reporters in a North Carolina press conference that Wright's publicity tour "has caused such a distraction from what this campaign should be about."
He also noted that his response yesterday was more tempered because he had not seen the video or transcript of the appearance Wright made at the National Press Club, which Obama considers "a show of disrespect to me."
Now that he has, he deems the appearance "something that not only makes me angry but also saddens me."
"The person I saw yesterday was not the person that I'd come to know," he said, adding that his wife Michelle was "similarly angered."
"When I say I find these comments appalling, I mean it," he said.
UPDATE - You can read the transcript of his presser here, and here is video of his remarks:
Brief logistical note: Sorry for the light blogging today. I was flying to Indianapolis in advance of the Hoosier State's primary Tuesday.
Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign tells female supporters in an e-mail, "YOU made the difference" in her Pennsylvania victory last week.
"Women made up 59% of the electorate in Tuesday's Democratic primary in Pennsylvania, compared to 53% in 2004. And women made the difference — Hillary won women 57%-43%," reads the note from Clinton adviser Ann Lewis.
It comes along with a Web video made by the senator's North Carolina volunteers.
"She is the only candidate I trust," one woman declares, while another calls Clinton "the only candidate that is committed to doing away with No Child Left Behind."
She also is the "only candidate with an economically viable health care plan" and the only one "ready to take over the White House," the video claims.
"The best man for the job is really a woman," it concludes.
The also note asks for more help:
1. Help raise small contributions: Hillary won in Pennsylvania despite being outspent 3 to 1. Now, with nine more contests to go, our campaign needs the funds to continue to make her case. If you've already contributed as much as you can, reach out to people you know, and ask them to make contributions of $10, $25, $50 — smaller contributions add up! Go to http://www.hillaryclinton.com/women4hrc to give Hillary the resources she needs to win.
2. Continue our women-to-women outreach: Indiana and North Carolina vote on May 6 — less than two weeks away. For more information on traveling to upcoming states and to sign up, click here. If you can't travel, you can make phone calls wherever you are. Go to www.hillaryclinton.com/makecalls to get started!
Team Obama just announced that Sen. Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico is their latest backer, a big get from a state that Sen. Hillary Clinton captured on Super Tuesday.
Bingaman, who has served 26 years, is well-respected among his colleagues. He's chairman of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee and he voted against the Iraq war.
Here are portions of the release:
Senator Bingaman said, "Today, I am announcing my support for Barack Obama for president and declaring my intention to vote for him at the Democratic convention.
"Our nation faces a daunting number of critical challenges: reasserting America's leadership in the world, meeting our needs for energy independence, addressing global warming, making healthcare accessible and affordable, positioning our economy to effectively compete globally, and extricating ourselves from the war in Iraq, to name a few.
"To make progress, we must rise above the partisanship and the issues that divide us to find common ground. We must move the country in a dramatically new direction.
"I strongly believe Barack Obama is best positioned to lead the nation in that new direction."
Well, a win there is not likely, but Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is campaigning hard for Oregon, which votes on May 20. I had a piece exploring this in Sunday's paper.
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is making a stealth play for Oregon, where a primary win next month - combined with her two strongest remaining states, West Virginia and Kentucky - may open up a pathway to the Democratic ticket by convincing superdelegates that she deserves the nomination.
Mrs. Clinton has set her sights on the Beaver State and its 52 delegates by focusing on local issues. She has concentrated surrogates, staff and resources there and called for two debates in hopes of narrowing the gap between rival Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois and herself.
With neither candidate likely winning enough delegates to capture the nomination outright, the attention to the party's superdelegates and their mind-sets has become increasingly important.
Few polls have been taken of Oregon voters, but Mr. Obama leads Mrs. Clinton 52 percent to 42 percent in a SurveyUSA poll done earlier this month.
Mr. Obama, who is favored to win the state known for antiwar, liberal voters and college towns, last campaigned there March 21 and has not yet announced plans for another trip.
An important element of the Oregon primary I neglected to mention in the story - the Beaver State votes by mail. Clinton supporters predicted regularly their candidate would win California because they were so organized with absentee balloting. This could give her another Oregon advantage, or not, since Obama also has been good at organizing early vote events.
An Obama-ite recently scoffed at the possibility of a Clinton Oregon victory, telling me they hope she spends time trying to win there because, "Those are our people."
It's an interesting tactic, since the speech was given to respond to the political fury that erupted over his pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
Here's the note from the Obama fundraising page, which starts with a $30 donation but allows folks to give the maximum $2,300:
The April fundraising deadline is this Wednesday.
Many will judge us by the money we raise, but we know our strength comes from a different number.
To celebrate the 1,500,000 grassroots donors who are funding this movement, we've created a special gift.
Make a donation of $30 or more before midnight on Wednesday, April 30th, and receive a DVD and limited edition print of Barack's "A More Perfect Union" speech on race in America.
Wright, who is at the National Press Club today as part of his ongoing publicity tour, also spoke to the NAACP last night. Here is our coverage of that speech and here is a piece Joe Curl and I wrote for Saturday's paper about how presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain is handling the Wright issue.
Obama adviser David Axelrod said on MSNBC's Morning Joe today the campaign obviously "can't control" Wright's tour.
"Reverend Wright speaks for Reverend Wright. He doesn't speak for Barack Obama," Axelrod said. "There's not a thing we can do about it. It's a free country, he's exercising his right to speak."
He also blasted the network, which plans to run the Wright speech live: "You're exercising your right to give him a huge platform."
Axelrod added he was "surprised to see 3 hours of coverage last night" on another network.
"With all that's going on in the world, it's an enormous platform to give Reverend Wright or anybody," he said. "He's taking advantage of it."
Finally, when asked how close Wright and Obama are, he said: "It's pretty clear from the last few days the relationship isn't that close."
This just in from the White House Correspondents Dinner: Pamela Anderson is backing Sen. Barack Obama.
The Baywatch babe is one of the most-photographed guests here. As she entered security, I asked who she liked for president. She shook her head, then grinned, turned back to me and said, "Obama, actually."
Sen. Barack Obama is going up in West Virginia with this ad, which played regularly in Pennsylvania. It also prompted two Clinton attackads.
"It's time Washington worked for you, not them," Obama says, reminding voters he doesn't take money from lobbyists.
The campaign also just posted the CBS look inside Obama HQ, complete with a Tommy Vietor cameo and David Axelrod talking about his daughter's battle with epilepsy. It's a pretty rare behind-the-scenes piece, worth the five minutes to watch.
Sen. Barack Obama is taking the day off from the campaign trail, spending today in Chicago with his national advisers and likely plotting a way to retool following his Pennsylvania loss. Sen. Hillary Clinton, buoyed by big bucks raised yesterday, campaigns in North Carolina.
I'm on lunch break after spending my morning in a crowded lounge fulfilling my civic duty and waiting to see if I'll be called for jury duty in D.C. Chances are this will be a light blogging day.
S.A. Miller and I have a story in today's print edition looking at the post-Pennsylvania spin and Clinton's strategy for trying to come back and capture the nomination.
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton parlayed her Pennsylvania primary victory into a prodigious $3.5 million overnight fundraising haul, and yesterday urged superdelegates to heed her self-defined lead in the popular vote when selecting the Democratic presidential nominee.
"More people have now voted for me than have voted for my opponent," said Mrs. Clinton, who is counting votes cast in the disqualified Florida and Michigan primaries. Otherwise, she still trails Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois in the popular vote and more importantly, in delegates needed for the nomination.
Mrs. Clinton, whose cash-strapped campaign desperately needed the contribution boost Tuesday night, also said her nearly 10-point Pennsylvania win and her victories in other large swing states such as Ohio and Florida position her best to beat presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona.
But Mr. Obama and his supporters retorted that Mr. Obama is more likely to shake up the 2004 Bush-Kerry map by adding states such as Virginia, and that the results did not alter his prospects for capturing the nomination.
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe ticked off 13 states in which Mr. Obama leads Mr. McCain in general election polls that Mrs. Clinton would lose — including Colorado, North Carolina, Oregon and Michigan. He added that "any Democrat" will carry California and New York, big states in the Clinton column.
"We can make Montana competitive," he said, while Mrs. Clinton is losing by double digits. "The best chance we'll have to win the general election is to expand the playing field."
Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski sends supporters an e-mail calling for two debates between Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama in advance of the Beaver State's May 20 primary.
Kulongoski, who supports Clinton, writes a note to folks on his political mailing list and includes a link to his "petition" to urge a debate, which conveniently links back to Clinton's Web site.
She appears in a video urging two debates, which is interesting since this is not something the campaign sent to the press as far as I know.
"The Pacific Northwest hasn't had a single presidential debate," Clinton tells the camera, before proposing two debates because Oregon voters deserve as much information as Iowa and New Hampshire.
One debate would be entirely focused on Oregon's rural issues, she says. "I hope that Senator Obama agrees Oregon deserves nothing less."
Here is Kulongoski's note:
In less than two weeks we'll be voting. Oregonians will make a decision which will impact the rest of our lives. The stakes cannot be higher, which is why I am standing with Hillary Clinton's challenge to hold two presidential debates - one on rural issues - right here in Oregon.
Oregon deserves just as much attention - and just as much information to make its decision - as Iowa, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania.
Join me in signing a petition calling for two presidential debates in Oregon:
Debates about real issues - Oregon issues - are good for the state and healthy for our democracy. Tomorrow I will be touring the state talking about a new Oregon Compact - Hillary's promise to our state to have a partner in the White House. The Compact is made up of some of the most important ideas Hillary has heard from Oregonians since the start of her campaign.
The Compact should be the starting point of the debate. How we bring green collar jobs to our state, how we make our state and nation more energy secure and how we will work together to bring health care to all Oregonians.
I could not be more proud to support a candidate who not only will work for Oregonians, but who will also listen to Oregonians. No matter which candidate you support, I hope you will join me in calling for two presidential debates on the issues in Oregon.
We need to hear the candidate's views on Oregon issues - sign the petition today:
www.debateoregon.com
You deserve to hear from both candidates. I look forward to the next month and I hope Senator Obama agrees to the challenge.
Team Clinton sends a new update on the cash raised from 60,000 donors - they raised $3.5 million from when the polls closed at 8 p.m. last night through 10 a.m.
They also claim they are "on track" to raise $10 million in the 24 hours after her win. Of the last 24 hours of donors, 50,000 are first-time contributors.
Here's the release:
Clinton Campaign on Track to Raise $10 Million Online in the 24 Hrs Since Winning PA Primary
Historic fundraising pace represents campaign's best day ever
Hillary Clinton's campaign is on track to raise $10 million online in the 24 hours since she was declared the winner of the Pennsylvania primary last night.
"Senator Clinton's game-changing victory last night has turned the tide and resulted in an historic outpouring of grassroots support," said Campaign Chairman Terry McAuliffe. "Just like Hillary, our supporters have met every challenge and come through each time. Thanks to them, we will have the resources needed to compete and win as we move ahead to the next contests."
In addition, the campaign has received support from over 60,000 donors through noon today, of whom approximately 50,000 are new donors.
Worth noting is that Clinton also raised a whopping sum after winning in Ohio and edging Sen. Barack Obama in the Texas primary, but ultimately ended March far behind Obama.
I'll have a Web story up shortly on what the two camps are saying about Sen. Hillary Clinton's big win last night.
In the meantime, here's a fundraising note Sen. Barack Obama sent his supporters last night.
Votes are still being counted in Pennsylvania, but one thing is already clear.
In a state where we trailed by more than 25 points just a couple weeks ago, you helped close the gap to a slimmer margin than most thought possible.
Thanks to your support, with just 9 contests remaining, we've won more delegates, more votes, and twice as many contests.
We hold a commanding position, but there are two crucial contests coming up — voters will head to the polls in North Carolina and Indiana in exactly two weeks. And we're already building our organization in the other remaining states.
But it's clear the attacks are going to continue, and we're going to continue fighting a two-front battle against John McCain and Hillary Clinton.
I need your support right now. Please make a donation of $25:
https://donate.barackobama.com/whatthismeans
Thank you for all that you're doing to change our country.
Barack
Here are portions of a Team Clinton memo:
To: Interested Parties
From: The Clinton Campaign
Date: April 23, 2008
RE: The Tide Is Turning
The voters in Pennsylvania have spoken. America is listening. And the tide is turning.
By providing fresh evidence that Hillary is the candidate best positioned to beat John McCain in the fall, the Pennsylvania primary is a turning point in the nominating contest.
Despite making an unprecedented financial investment in his Pennsylvania campaign, including millions on negative ads in the closing days of the race, Sen. Obama again failed to win a state that will be vital to a Democratic victory in November and spurred new questions about his ability to beat John McCain. No candidate has ever had more resources or enjoyed the kind of momentum that Sen. Obama had in Pennsylvania.
With concerns about the economy paramount, voters decided that Sen. Clinton was the candidate they trusted most to deal with job loss, the housing crisis and health care.
And with both candidates under the microscope at the same time for the first time, Hillary took more than a few punches and came out stronger while Sen. Obama emerged weaker as voters learned more about him. The exit polls clearly show that Sen. Clinton gained strength in the final days when the campaign was most engaged.
The reason for the Clinton comeback is clear: voters want a candidate who will stand strong for them and work to create a better future.
Read the rest of the Clinton memo here. I have an analysis based on last night's exit polls in today's print edition:
The battle over "bitter" is bleeding into the electorate, with all signs pointing to more ugly fights before the next Democratic presidential contests.
Polarized Pennsylvania voters yesterday mirrored the sentiment among Democrats nationwide — with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's and Sen. Barack Obama's supporters standing firm with their choices and suggesting that they wouldn't back the other — signaling a dangerously divisive race for the Democrats in the weeks to come.
The razor-sharp negative campaign — increasing in nastiness by the day — has some Democratic leaders worried and has prompted party officials this week to scrap debate plans in advance of the next primaries.
Complicating the issue as Mrs. Clinton started to close in on Mr. Obama's popular vote lead was his inability to win over Pennsylvania's seniors, white males and blue-collar voters. It's a major warning sign that gives Mrs. Clinton wide room to argue that she would be the better Democratic nominee, even though her possible path to winning remains difficult.
Presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain, meanwhile, can sit back and enjoy the spectacle of the Democrats bloodying each other for at least the next few weeks and, potentially, into the summer.
As the dust settles and the Democrats move on to Indiana — where she is favored for the May 6 contest but polls are tightening — and North Carolina, which he is expected to win, Mrs. Clinton will say the Pennsylvania result bolsters her claim she is "tested."
Exit polls showed an alarming chasm between the two Democrats — with only half of Clinton voters saying they would back Mr. Obama should he win the nomination. One-quarter of Clinton voters would back Mr. McCain while 19 percent said they would stay home in November entirely.
Of Obama supporters, 67 percent said they would support Mrs. Clinton if she earns the party nod, 17 percent would back the Republican senator and 12 percent would not vote.
That's the label Team Obama gives the Democratic race in a memo out late tonight after Sen. Hillary Clinton registered what seems to be at least a 9-point victory in Pennsylvania.
To: Interested Parties
Fr: The Obama Campaign
Re: A fundamentally unchanged race
Da: 4/22/08
Tonight, Hillary Clinton lost her last, best chance to make significant inroads in the pledged delegate count.
The only surprising result from Pennsylvania is that in a state considered tailor-made for Hillary Clinton that she was expected to win, Barack Obama was able to improve his standing among key voter groups since the Ohio primary. For example, among white voters, Obama narrowed the gap with Clinton by six points. Among voters over 60, he nearly cut the gap in half, from 41 points to 24 points. And Independent voters - the group that will decide the general election and a group Obama is particularly strong with - were not able to vote in Not surprisingly, she led by as much as 25 points in the weeks leading up to the election.
As he has done in every state, Barack Obama campaigned hard to pick up as much support and as many delegates as possible and was able to stave off Clinton from achieving a significant pledged delegate gain from Pennsylvania.
The bottom line is that the Pennsylvania outcome does not change dynamic of this lengthy primary. While there were 158 delegates at stake there, there are fully 157 up for grabs in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries on May 6.
But Clinton's Phil Singer sends over this note, which is actually a big fundamental change.
As of 11:30PM tonight, we are at nearly $2.5 million since PA was called for HRC - 80% of that money is coming from new donors to the campaign. It's our best night ever.
Here's the Clinton victory speech:
And in a bit of overkill, Clinton sends over a fundraising note along with a big red "contribute" button:
Thanks to you, we won a critically important victory tonight in Pennsylvania. It's a giant step forward that will transform the landscape of the presidential race. And it couldn't have happened without you.
There will be much more to do beginning tomorrow. But tonight, let's just celebrate the fact that you and I are part of a remarkable community of people tough enough, passionate enough, and determined enough to win big when everything is on the line.
The first word from Team Clinton on her Pennsylvania victory just chimed in the form of the text message below, and her surrogates and aides have been dropping her Web site constantly on television tonight.
Thanks to you, we won an important victory tonight in PA. Help us keep up the momentum at www.hillaryclinton.com. Thanks for everything you do — HIllary
Washington Times staff writer S.A. Miller sends in a dispatch from Philadelphia this afternoon — noting that Sen. Barack Obama and former President Bill Clinton share the same taste in cheesesteaks despite their tiff on the campaign trail today.
He said Obama and his wife Michelle visited Pat's King of Steaks South Philly earlier today to do a segment for the "Press Pool" show on XM's POTUS 08 channel.
Obama ordered a "Whiz Wit," shorthand for a cheesesteak with Cheese Whiz and onions, and a bottled water, while his wife had a Pepsi.
Pat's owner Frank E. Olivieri Jr., 44, said it was a smart strategic move for Obama to visit his famous watering hole.
Obama "presented himself as a gentleman, of course, very confident," said Olivieri, who is a Democrat but lives in New Jersey.
Olivieri thinks Sen. Hillary Clinton and Obama should join forces on a joint ticket and stop the bickering — in either order.
"If the candidates want real change, they should put their money where their mouth is, live in the same house and get it done," Olivieri told Miller.
The cheesesteak boss added that Clinton hasn't been to his spot, but "Bill is here all the time."
Most recently the former president was at Pat's last night with daughter Chelsea, who snacked on some cheese fries.
Voters in Harrisburg complained this morning about an advertising sticker that ended up plastered over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's face on the front page of the Patriot-News.
The newspaper editors explain here they have no control over the stickers, which are applied automatically on the printing press.
THE CROWDS
Sen. Barack Obama seems to always draw a crowd, even when the campaign tries to manage the numbers and keep them small for town halls. Last night in Pittsburgh, more than 10,000 stuck around until nearly midnight to hear from Obama, who did not keep his speech short. The crowd didn't seem to mind the long night, and were on their feet hollering more than a dozen times. Here's some video I shot of his introduction:
My colleague S.A. Miller has been with the Clinton camp the last few days, and he tells me her biggest crowd was about 7,000 in Philadelphia last night (paling in comparison with his 35,000-person rally there Friday). She's gotten excited cheers from voters, and has attracted some younger Democrats to events held at colleges.
ORGANIZATION
Clinton volunteers were out in droves all week, filling up hotel rooms across the state and knocking on doors. The campaign organized trips from D.C. and New York into Pennsylvania and had surrogates do "visibilities" at Obama rallies, while supporters from across the country were urged to make phone calls into the Keystone State.
Both Democrats have sent text messages to their supporters today. Here's what showed up on my phone:
One voice can make a difference. Make that voice yours! Fwd this msg and make sure all your friends vote today for Barack
People who love their counrtry can change it. Make sure all your friends vote today for Barack! Polls open in PA until 8 a.m. Please fwd msg.
Hillary needs your help today! You can help Hillary win PA by calling key voters right now! To get started simply reply YES - Thank you!
Obama's voter contact director also sent a note to supporters asking them to log in and make 20 calls into Pennsylvania.
EXPECTATIONS
Finally, Team Obama and Team Clinton are out with competing memo explaining what the results might mean.
TO: Interested Parties
FR: Obama Campaign
RE: The Bar for Clinton in Pennsylvania and Beyond
With all eyes on today's contest, one thing is clear: Pennsylvania is considered a state tailor-made for Hillary Clinton, and by rights she should win big. She has family roots in the state, she has the support of the Democratic establishment — including Gov. Rendell's extensive network — and former President Clinton is fondly remembered.
Clinton has been leading by large margins in Pennsylvania. In the weeks leading up to the primary, she led by as much as 25 points. They were so confident that their own Pennsylvania spokesman said Clinton would be "unbeatable" in Pennsylvania —regardless of spending by her opponent. [Washington Post, 3/7/08]
But as he has done in every state, Obama campaigned hard and tapped into the hunger for change at grassroots, looking to pick up as many delegates as possible. Old-fashioned, shoe-leather campaigning, in the face of unrelenting negative attacks from Clinton, substantially closed a once-formidable gap.
There has been much speculation about what each campaign needs coming out of tonight. The facts, however, are simple.
Behind in delegates and sporting a 14-30 primary record (not good enough even to make the playoffs in the NBA Eastern Conference), the Clinton campaign needs a blowout victory in Pennsylvania to get any closer to winning the nomination. Even former President Clinton said that only a "big, big victory" will give her the boost she needs.
The Philadelphia Inquirer observed that there is "consensus" that Clinton has to "take the state big, perhaps by double digits, to be able to claim that she'd won it a way that matters in the overall nomination struggle — given her deficits in both the delegate race and the overall popular vote." [Philadelphia Inquirer, 4/3/08]
That's exactly right. And Clinton's own supporters have been predicting big wins. Gov. Ed Rendell and Congressman Jack Murtha — no strangers to Pennsylvania politics — have both predicted runaway wins for her. [MTP, 4/6/08, MSNBC, 4/1/08]
The Clinton campaign has been trying to spin away their earlier confidence and move the goal posts for victory in Pennsylvania. But the bottom line is that if Clinton is going to make meaningful inroads in this race for delegates, she will need a huge margin in Pennsylvania.
The Race Beyond Tonight
Tonight's outcome is unlikely to change the dynamic of this lengthy primary. Fully three-quarters of the remaining delegates will be selected in states other than Pennsylvania. While there are 158 delegates at stake in today's primary, there are 157 up for grabs in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries two weeks from today. We expect that by tomorrow morning, the overall structure of the race will remain unchanged — except for the fact that there will be 158 delegates off the table.
It wouldn't be surprising if the Clinton campaign once again tries to change the metrics by which the race is measured. They used to stress repeatedly that, in Howard Wolfson’s words "[t]his is a race for delegates." [Washington Post, 1/16/08] Recently, they have attempted to shift the focus to the popular vote, and the specious argument that primary wins in big states equate to electoral vote pickups in the general election. They do not.
Our strategy has always been to gain as many delegates as possible — an important point to remember going forward. If this race had focused on the popular vote, we would have campaigned non-stop in California, for example, and run up our numbers even higher in Obama's home state of Illinois. But we focused on delegates because, simply, delegates decide the Democratic nominee.
But even if we were to judge the primary on the popular vote, we anticipate having a comfortable lead when voting in the last nine contests wraps up in June. Obama will continue to gain strength with Democratic superdelegates. He will maintain his position as the best candidate to take on Sen. John McCain. And he will be ready to unite the American people and begin a new chapter in our history.
We are already organizing vigorously in the remaining contests, opening local offices, canvassing, and engaging voters in this unprecedented campaign. We will have the financial resources we need to be competitive. Our message will be the same one that Obama enunciated 14 months ago and has shared with voters every day since: that the size of the challenges we face has outgrown the smallness of our politics, and this election is our chance to change that.
To: Interested Parties
From: The Clinton Campaign
Date: April 22, 2008
MEMO: Watch What They Do Not What They Say
The Obama campaign is attempting to pre-spin the results from tonight's
Pennsylvania primary by suggesting that Clinton should — and will —
win.
But after the Obama campaign's "go-for-broke" Pennsylvania strategy,
after their avalanche of negative ads, negative mailers and negative
attacks against Clinton, after their record-breaking spending in
the state, a fundamental question must be asked: Why shouldn't
OBAMA win?
Obama's supporters — and many pundits — have argued that the
delegate "math" makes him the prohibitive frontrunner. They have argued
that Clinton's chances are slim to none. So if he's already the
frontrunner, if he's had six weeks of unlimited resources to get his
message out, shouldn't he be the one expected to win tonight? If not,
why not?
As the phrase goes, watch what they do not what they say.
There's a reason Obama and his campaign have ratcheted up their
year-long assault on Clinton's character and ended the Pennsylvania
campaign with a flurry of harsh negative attacks. It's because they know
that a loss in Pennsylvania will raise troubling questions about his
candidacy and his ability to take on McCain in the general
election. And it's because they know that the race is neck and neck and
tonight's contest is a measure of where the campaign stands.
The reality is this: both candidates need a combination of pledged and
super delegates to secure the nomination — and either candidate can
reach the required number. The press and the pundits have repeatedly
counted Clinton out and she has repeatedly proved them wrong. The
vote in the bellwether state of Pennsylvania is another head to head
measure of the two candidates and of the coalition they will put
together to compete and win in November.
No amount of spin from the Obama campaign will change that — nor will it
explain away anything less than a victory by Obama.
PITTSBURGH — I'm about to take a propeller plane from here to Harrisburg before heading back to D.C. to cover the election from there.
On the way to the airport, there were few signs that today is a make-or-break election for Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, though local radio was talking up the primary and featured interviews with the candidates and their surrogates.
The forecast is clear and it is indeed beautiful as voters head to the polls, which opened at 7 and will close at 8 p.m.
Even Obama supporters are fairly certain Clinton will win tonight, and the race will continue into May. But the high number of undecideds - still! - could swing the result in a different direction. We'll know soon enough.
I've had the impression for a while that folks attending Obama rallies are true believers, but that theory was proven wrong this morning.
When you buy one-way tickets at the last minute, you tend to get flagged for extra screening, and today was no exception for me. So I made the most of it and interviewed my TSA screener.
Here's how the conversation went, similar to so many I've had in recent days.
Me: So, are you voting today?
Screener: You bet.
Me: Which candidate do you like?
Screener: I just don't know. Probably Hillary.
Me: Interesting. What do you like about her?
Screener: I'm just not sure, there are things I like about both of them. I got to see Obama at an event. He got me all enthusiastic that day.
Apparently not enthusiastic enough to close the deal.
I have a story in today's paper exploring what Clinton needs to do today in order to remain in the nomination battle.
McKEESPORT, Pa. - Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton dominated Ohio, squeaked out a win in the Texas primary and is looking for a solid victory today in Pennsylvania to keep superdelegates from breaking for her Democratic presidential rival and finally ending the nomination battle.
If she gets the big win, she'll have more evidence for her claim that Sen. Barack Obama is unable to deliver in major swing states and, her team says, it will raise serious questions about his electability.
"It's safe to say that, certainly, the superdelegates will have several questions for the Obama campaign if Senator Obama fails to be successful on Tuesday, considering the amount of resources they've expended on Pennsylvania," said Clinton spokesman Phil Singer.
But the size of Mrs. Clinton's expected victory here today is more important than the win, and the tipping point for her viability for staying in the race ranges from a five-point to double-digit victory, depending on the source.
"If she gets a 20-point win, that would be impressive," quipped Obama strategist David Axelrod, citing her one-time massive lead when the Pennsylvania campaign began.
Read the rest here, and a story on the candidates' closing arguments, here.
Sen. Barack Obama is getting a little boost today from the ultimate kitchen superdelegate.
Has Rachael Ray chosen hope as her main ingredient for the presidential race? I've learned she will interview Obama and his wife Michelle today on the campaign trail.
Ray was a fan of Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, who flirted with a presidential bid (and the Food Network star) early in the campaign, and she donated $2,000 to his fledgling PAC in 2006.
Her name also came up last week when Republican Sen. John McCain's campaign was caught stealing recipes from the Food Network Web site and passing them off as Cindy McCain specialties.
