DES MOINES, Iowa -- As most folks hunker down to watch bowl games today, the candidates are out on the campaign trail for the last two days before Thursday's caucus.

I have a story up this morning explaining the (sometimes hard to understand) caucus process.

Members of the foreign press were baffled during a November caucus training run by party officials. They asked political director Norm Sterzenbach why Iowa holds a “confusing” caucus instead of a primary.

The reply was direct and honest - because New Hampshire has the first-in-the-nation primary. If Iowa was a primary, "we would not be first."

There is no dispute Iowa and its economy benefit from the caucus. Nearly 4,500 reporters photographers and television crews are credentialed for the big day, and they bring with them large expense accounts and book multiple hotel rooms.

A new Des Moines Register poll that came out last night has Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. Hillary Clinton and former Sen. John Edwards, but compiling all the voter surveys in a state that is notoriously hard to poll, it's still anyone's race to win.

Team Clinton sent out a release touting her lead in two new polls - one by CNN and the other by Zogby.

Clinton's top strategist Mark Penn wrote this memo today blasting the Register's poll methodology, saying it is "out of sync" with past polls:

The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race.

When you look at Democrats who last time were 80% of the turnout, Hillary wins with that group by 6%, 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. And as David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls.

The Des Moines Register Poll this time has 40% independent voters and 5% GOP voters in the poll when past independent participation has been 15% in 2000 and 19% in 2004, and the GOP has generally made up 1% of the vote. So they are depicting an unprecedented departure from historically established turnout patterns in the caucus. Under their model, only 55% of the caucus goers would be Democrats.

The other recent polls all show Hillary trending up and leading or within 1 point of the lead, and many show her moving up from a substantial deficit to tie and having the momentum in this race.

Insider Advantage, 12/28-12/29: Clinton 30, Edwards 29, Obama 22
Zogby, 12/27-12/30: Clinton 30, Edwards 26, Obama 26
Mason-Dixon, 12/26-12/28: Clinton 23, Edwards 24, Obama 22
Research 2000, 12/26-12/27: Clinton 28, Edwards 29, Obama 29
ARG, 12/26-12/28: Clinton 31, Edwards 24, Obama 24

"So we do not see this poll as accurately reflecting the trends we are seeing in other polls, on our nightly canvasses or in our own polls, and voters should understand this is a very close race, and that their participation on caucus night could make all of the difference."

The Clinton campaign also announced it has raised over $100 million in new money in 2007, not including the $10 million she transfered from her senate fundraising account.

At a New Year's Eve party co-hosted last night by the state's Republican and Democratic parties, Obama staffers and volunteers were cheering the Register's poll and poring through the special edition the newspaper put out late in the evening.

Atlantic's Marc Ambinder has the Edwards camp reaction here.

-- Christina Bellantoni, national political reporter, The Washington Times